KBNA / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 16 · 22:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

96%

93%

80%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 89.9¢Risks 44.95u

WN2NO 10.1¢Risks 5.05u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +5.05u · WN2 −5.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T22:26:10+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-13T07:52:50+00:00	88.4%	53.7%	48.4%	71.5%	56.9%
2026-09-13T08:38:12+00:00	88.4%	53.7%	48.4%	71.5%	56.9%
2026-09-13T09:23:17+00:00	88.4%	53.7%	48.4%	71.5%	56.9%
2026-09-13T10:08:22+00:00	88.4%	53.7%	48.4%	71.5%	56.9%
2026-09-13T10:53:30+00:00	88.4%	82.2%	65.5%	71.5%	56.9%
2026-09-13T11:38:38+00:00	88.4%	82.2%	65.5%	71.5%	56.9%
2026-09-13T12:23:44+00:00	88.4%	82.2%	65.5%	71.5%	56.9%
2026-09-13T13:08:49+00:00	88.4%	82.2%	65.5%	71.5%	56.9%
2026-09-13T13:53:54+00:00	89.0%	82.2%	65.5%	71.5%	56.9%
2026-09-13T14:39:25+00:00	89.0%	82.2%	65.5%	71.5%	56.9%
2026-09-13T15:24:31+00:00	89.0%	82.7%	65.5%	71.5%	56.9%
2026-09-13T16:09:35+00:00	89.0%	82.7%	65.5%	71.5%	56.9%
2026-09-13T16:54:42+00:00	89.0%	82.7%	64.0%	71.5%	56.9%
2026-09-13T17:39:51+00:00	89.0%	82.7%	64.0%	71.5%	56.9%
2026-09-13T18:24:59+00:00	89.0%	82.7%	64.0%	71.5%	56.9%
2026-09-13T19:10:04+00:00	89.0%	82.7%	64.0%	71.5%	56.9%
2026-09-13T19:55:09+00:00	86.5%	82.7%	64.0%	96.2%	56.9%
2026-09-13T20:40:15+00:00	86.5%	82.7%	64.0%	96.2%	56.9%
2026-09-13T21:25:19+00:00	86.5%	82.7%	64.0%	96.2%	56.9%
2026-09-13T22:10:24+00:00	86.5%	82.7%	64.0%	96.2%	56.9%
2026-09-13T22:55:28+00:00	86.5%	82.7%	67.0%	96.2%	56.9%
2026-09-13T23:40:34+00:00	86.5%	82.7%	67.0%	96.2%	56.9%
2026-09-14T00:25:39+00:00	86.5%	82.7%	67.0%	96.2%	56.9%
2026-09-14T01:10:47+00:00	86.5%	82.7%	67.0%	96.2%	56.9%
2026-09-14T01:55:51+00:00	92.3%	82.7%	67.0%	96.2%	56.9%
2026-09-14T02:40:57+00:00	92.3%	82.7%	67.0%	96.2%	56.9%
2026-09-14T03:26:02+00:00	92.3%	82.7%	67.0%	96.2%	56.9%
2026-09-14T04:11:09+00:00	92.3%	82.7%	67.0%	96.2%	56.9%
2026-09-14T04:56:22+00:00	92.3%	82.7%	74.3%	96.2%	56.9%
2026-09-14T05:41:27+00:00	92.3%	82.7%	74.3%	96.2%	56.9%
2026-09-14T06:26:35+00:00	92.3%	82.7%	74.3%	96.2%	56.9%
2026-09-14T07:11:39+00:00	92.3%	82.7%	74.3%	96.2%	56.9%
2026-09-14T07:56:51+00:00	91.9%	82.7%	74.3%	84.4%	94.7%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00	91.9%	82.7%	74.3%	84.4%	94.7%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00	91.9%	82.7%	74.3%	84.4%	94.7%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00	91.9%	82.7%	74.3%	84.4%	94.7%
2026-09-14T10:57:26+00:00	91.9%	99.0%	74.3%	84.4%	94.7%
2026-09-14T11:42:33+00:00	91.9%	99.0%	74.3%	84.4%	94.7%
2026-09-14T12:27:38+00:00	91.9%	99.0%	74.3%	84.4%	94.7%
2026-09-14T13:12:43+00:00	91.9%	99.0%	74.3%	84.4%	94.7%
2026-09-14T13:57:49+00:00	91.7%	99.0%	74.3%	84.4%	94.6%
2026-09-14T14:43:29+00:00	91.7%	99.0%	74.3%	84.4%	94.6%
2026-09-14T15:28:38+00:00	91.7%	99.0%	74.3%	84.4%	94.6%
2026-09-14T16:13:51+00:00	91.7%	99.0%	74.3%	84.4%	94.6%
2026-09-14T16:58:56+00:00	91.7%	99.0%	77.0%	84.4%	94.6%
2026-09-14T17:44:02+00:00	91.7%	99.0%	77.0%	84.4%	94.6%
2026-09-14T18:29:10+00:00	91.7%	99.0%	77.0%	84.4%	94.6%
2026-09-14T19:14:15+00:00	91.7%	99.0%	77.0%	84.4%	94.6%
2026-09-14T19:59:20+00:00	85.7%	99.0%	77.0%	85.8%	83.8%
2026-09-14T20:44:27+00:00	85.7%	99.0%	77.0%	85.8%	83.8%
2026-09-14T21:29:31+00:00	85.7%	99.0%	77.0%	85.8%	83.8%
2026-09-14T22:14:36+00:00	85.7%	99.0%	77.0%	85.8%	83.8%
2026-09-14T22:59:42+00:00	85.7%	98.9%	69.7%	85.8%	83.8%
2026-09-14T23:44:50+00:00	85.7%	98.9%	69.7%	85.8%	83.8%
2026-09-15T00:29:56+00:00	85.7%	98.9%	69.7%	85.8%	83.8%
2026-09-15T01:15:04+00:00	85.7%	98.9%	69.7%	85.8%	83.8%
2026-09-15T02:00:09+00:00	90.8%	99.1%	69.7%	85.8%	83.8%
2026-09-15T02:45:15+00:00	90.8%	99.1%	69.7%	85.8%	83.8%
2026-09-15T03:30:24+00:00	90.8%	99.1%	69.7%	85.8%	83.8%
2026-09-15T04:15:39+00:00	90.8%	99.1%	69.7%	85.8%	83.8%
2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00	90.8%	99.1%	79.0%	85.8%	83.8%
2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00	90.8%	99.1%	79.0%	85.8%	83.8%
2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00	90.8%	99.1%	79.0%	85.8%	83.8%
2026-09-15T07:16:03+00:00	90.8%	99.1%	79.0%	85.8%	83.8%
2026-09-15T08:01:21+00:00	94.8%	99.1%	79.0%	98.0%	89.0%
2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00	94.8%	99.1%	79.0%	98.0%	89.0%
2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00	94.8%	99.1%	79.0%	98.0%	89.0%
2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00	94.8%	99.1%	79.0%	98.0%	89.0%
2026-09-15T11:02:04+00:00	94.8%	100.0%	80.1%	98.0%	89.0%
2026-09-15T11:47:16+00:00	94.8%	100.0%	80.1%	98.0%	89.0%
2026-09-15T12:32:21+00:00	94.8%	100.0%	80.1%	98.0%	89.0%
2026-09-15T13:17:26+00:00	94.8%	100.0%	80.1%	98.0%	89.0%
2026-09-15T14:02:35+00:00	93.7%	100.0%	80.1%	94.0%	88.7%
2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00	93.7%	100.0%	80.1%	94.0%	88.7%
2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00	93.7%	100.0%	80.1%	98.0%	88.7%
2026-09-15T16:19:08+00:00	93.7%	100.0%	80.1%	98.0%	88.7%
2026-09-15T17:04:22+00:00	93.7%	100.0%	77.3%	98.0%	88.7%
2026-09-15T17:49:29+00:00	93.7%	100.0%	77.3%	98.0%	88.7%
2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00	93.7%	100.0%	77.3%	98.0%	88.7%
2026-09-15T19:19:43+00:00	93.7%	100.0%	77.3%	98.0%	88.7%
2026-09-15T20:04:48+00:00	93.9%	100.0%	77.3%	98.0%	93.7%
2026-09-15T20:49:54+00:00	93.9%	100.0%	77.3%	98.0%	93.7%
2026-09-15T21:35:04+00:00	93.9%	100.0%	77.3%	98.0%	93.7%
2026-09-15T22:20:09+00:00	93.9%	100.0%	77.3%	98.0%	93.7%
2026-09-15T23:05:15+00:00	93.9%	100.0%	79.4%	92.4%	93.7%
2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00	93.9%	100.0%	79.4%	92.4%	93.7%
2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00	93.9%	100.0%	79.4%	92.4%	93.7%
2026-09-16T01:20:36+00:00	93.9%	100.0%	79.4%	92.4%	93.7%
2026-09-16T02:05:48+00:00	92.9%	100.0%	79.4%	92.4%	93.7%
2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00	92.9%	100.0%	79.4%	92.4%	93.7%
2026-09-16T03:36:14+00:00	92.9%	100.0%	79.4%	92.4%	93.7%
2026-09-16T04:21:32+00:00	92.9%	100.0%	79.4%	92.4%	93.7%
2026-09-16T11:08:06+00:00	92.6%	99.7%	83.5%	98.8%	87.7%
2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00	92.6%	99.7%	83.5%	98.8%	87.7%
2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00	92.6%	99.7%	83.5%	98.8%	87.7%
2026-09-16T13:23:26+00:00	94.7%	99.7%	83.5%	98.8%	87.7%
2026-09-16T14:09:45+00:00	94.7%	99.7%	83.5%	98.8%	87.7%
2026-09-16T14:54:54+00:00	94.7%	99.7%	83.5%	98.8%	87.7%
2026-09-16T15:40:07+00:00	94.7%	99.7%	83.5%	98.8%	87.7%
2026-09-16T16:25:13+00:00	94.7%	99.7%	83.5%	96.7%	92.7%
2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00	94.7%	99.7%	80.1%	96.7%	92.7%
2026-09-16T17:55:35+00:00	94.7%	99.7%	80.1%	96.7%	92.7%
2026-09-16T18:40:45+00:00	94.7%	99.7%	80.1%	96.7%	92.7%
2026-09-16T19:25:50+00:00	95.8%	99.7%	80.1%	97.7%	92.7%
2026-09-16T20:10:56+00:00	95.8%	99.7%	80.1%	97.7%	92.7%
2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00	95.8%	99.7%	80.1%	97.7%	92.7%
2026-09-16T21:41:05+00:00	95.8%	99.7%	80.1%	97.7%	92.7%
2026-09-16T22:26:10+00:00	95.8%	99.7%	80.1%	97.7%	92.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	98.8°F	3.0°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	98%	103.0°F	6.3°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	97%	96.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	98.6°F	4.7°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	94%	100.0°F	6.2°F	2026-09-16 14:00	Pending
ICON	93%	97.4°F	4.7°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	93.8°F	3.9°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260920-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 13 · 07:52 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 91°F+ · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗