KBNA / Sun Sep 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 95°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Sep 16 · 02:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

80%

77%

75%

44%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 70.3¢Risks 70.30u

WN2NO 29.7¢Risks 29.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +29.70u · WN2 −29.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	—	—	10.3%	2.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	7.4%	—	—	10.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	39.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	18.5%	—	—	11.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	2.4%	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	16.2%	—	58.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	26.6%	52.2%	—	62.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	31.6%	—	56.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	35.2%	50.0%	39.0%	—	80.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.5%	19.5%	73.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	72.1%	47.5%	46.7%	—	77.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	38.2%	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	51.7%	61.3%	48.2%	—	83.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	63.2%	70.6%	—	—	16.1%
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.9%	64.4%	51.8%	44.5%	—	85.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	65.7%	87.8%	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	88.9%	66.1%	49.0%	—	79.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	89.0%	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	73.2%	80.3%	49.0%	8.2%	70.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	87.9%	61.5%	—	—	76.3%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	91.0%	74.5%	58.7%	5.0%	81.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.5%	86.5%	56.7%	0.8%	—	69.5%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	86.0%	66.9%	63.7%	45.4%	66.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	89.2%	82.5%	42.8%	—	65.3%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	91.5%	63.4%	51.2%	66.9%	72.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	25.9%	82.6%	89.1%	61.5%	—	63.9%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	85.1%	80.9%	59.3%	65.7%	52.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	41.7%	88.2%	70.0%	47.2%	—	68.8%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	86.2%	80.9%	41.4%	66.9%	64.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	27.2%	88.0%	75.2%	45.5%	—	51.5%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	75.0%	69.7%	36.1%	54.7%	27.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	88.5%	91.4%	54.9%	—	61.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	98.6°F	2.3°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	80%	99.5°F	5.9°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	77%	98.9°F	5.9°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	97.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-15 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	95.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-15 15:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	93.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	42%	93.6°F	4.3°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 95°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260920-TMAX-GE95
Opened Sep 14 · 15:28 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 95°F · Sun Sep 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗