KBNA / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 100°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Sep 21 · 10:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

18%

16%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 11.9¢Risks 5.95u

WN2NO 88.1¢Risks 44.05u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +44.05u · WN2 −44.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	4.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	14.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	2.7%	—	—	5.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	3.9%	—	2.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	1.3%	4.8%	—	27.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	18.9%	22.8%	0.4%	—	27.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	4.5%	8.7%	3.9%	—	33.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	0.0%	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	12.0%	11.6%	0.0%	—	31.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	5.9%	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	24.1%	41.3%	0.2%	—	22.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	19.0%	55.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	21.6%	18.4%	2.1%	—	23.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	24.6%	28.4%	—	—	21.0%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	17.1%	28.7%	0.2%	—	15.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	18.3%	36.3%	—	—	16.4%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	17.6%	33.0%	1.2%	—	11.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	13.2%	16.3%	—	—	7.2%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	11.4%	8.1%	1.9%	13.7%	11.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	14.1%	4.8%	0.0%	—	12.9%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	10.0%	14.0%	3.8%	6.1%	7.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	14.5%	13.2%	7.0%	—	7.4%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	15.1%	19.1%	4.9%	0.0%	11.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	26.9%	12.8%	3.7%	—	9.2%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	16.5%	5.3%	7.0%	2.4%	5.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	14.7%	2.3%	1.2%	—	4.3%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	17.2%	2.3%	8.3%	2.5%	2.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	26.0%	1.3%	2.9%	—	5.6%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	18.1%	9.6%	2.2%	0.6%	2.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	21.6%	14.1%	5.3%	—	22.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	25%	98.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-21 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	96.3°F	3.8°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	97.0°F	2.7°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	96.4°F	3.0°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
ICON	8%	94.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	96.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	92.7°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 100°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260921-TMAX-GE100
Opened Sep 14 · 07:56 UTC

Original listing: Triple digits in Nashville · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗