KBNA / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 19 · 18:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

95%

94%

93%

80%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 89.6¢Risks 89.60u

WN2NO 10.4¢Risks 10.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +10.40u · WN2 −10.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	11.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	—	15.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	14.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	17.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	0.5%	—	—	45.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	70.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	—	—	—	71.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	58.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	40.6%	—	—	53.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	35.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	50.0%	—	38.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	80.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	34.3%	56.6%	—	89.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	84.9%	87.8%	21.6%	—	90.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	83.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	61.8%	73.9%	59.5%	—	94.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	7.6%	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	64.7%	82.2%	81.6%	8.3%	—	94.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	71.9%	96.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	93.2%	97.6%	24.8%	—	92.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	70.6%	91.5%	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	93.7%	92.1%	60.9%	—	94.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	59.4%	95.4%	96.4%	—	—	94.1%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	65.2%	93.2%	97.0%	30.4%	—	92.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	94.6%	98.5%	—	—	93.7%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	95.1%	98.4%	62.2%	—	91.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	93.8%	95.3%	—	—	88.4%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	93.8%	91.0%	74.5%	95.0%	94.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	79.4%	96.0%	87.7%	5.1%	—	95.5%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	75.8%	94.9%	96.7%	87.3%	91.5%	93.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	97.5%	97.1%	93.8%	—	94.2%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	87.6%	98.2%	98.8%	92.9%	29.8%	97.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	99.6%	98.2%	92.8%	—	97.2%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	99.2%	96.0%	97.0%	91.6%	95.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	99.3%	93.3%	88.9%	—	96.3%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	99.6%	94.9%	98.8%	95.3%	95.6%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	99.9%	94.0%	97.1%	—	98.6%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	91.7%	99.9%	99.6%	97.4%	92.3%	97.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	100.0%	99.9%	99.4%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	97.0°F	2.7°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	98%	96.0°F	3.2°F	2026-09-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	97%	96.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	96.4°F	4.2°F	2026-09-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	94%	95.9°F	4.1°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	93%	94.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	92.7°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260921-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 14 · 07:56 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗