KBNA / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 21 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

95%

94%

91%

71%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 85.2¢Risks 85.25u

WN2NO 14.7¢Risks 14.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +14.75u · WN2 −14.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	22.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	11.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	0.3%	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	65.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	65.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	52.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	34.2%	—	—	46.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	43.0%	—	31.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	27.9%	49.3%	—	85.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	80.0%	83.5%	16.4%	—	87.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	77.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	54.0%	67.0%	51.6%	—	91.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	5.1%	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	76.2%	75.5%	5.6%	—	92.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	64.2%	64.2%	94.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	89.9%	96.1%	18.4%	—	88.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	62.4%	87.5%	98.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	44.5%	90.2%	88.1%	51.8%	—	91.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	92.6%	94.1%	—	—	90.8%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	89.3%	94.9%	22.5%	—	88.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	54.0%	91.2%	97.2%	—	—	90.0%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	49.0%	91.8%	97.0%	52.1%	—	86.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	89.9%	92.0%	—	—	82.4%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	89.6%	85.7%	64.9%	91.5%	90.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	70.4%	92.9%	81.0%	2.7%	—	92.1%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	65.9%	91.0%	93.9%	80.1%	86.0%	88.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	95.2%	94.5%	89.2%	—	89.8%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	80.1%	96.3%	97.4%	87.6%	19.9%	94.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	79.1%	98.9%	96.3%	87.2%	—	94.4%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	98.0%	92.1%	93.9%	85.1%	91.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	98.2%	87.5%	80.9%	—	92.4%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	99.0%	89.8%	97.1%	90.5%	91.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	99.7%	88.0%	93.5%	—	96.6%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	83.9%	99.6%	98.8%	93.9%	84.8%	94.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	99.8%	99.6%	98.3%	—	99.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	97.0°F	2.7°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	98%	97.0°F	3.2°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	96%	96.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-20 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	97.2°F	4.1°F	2026-09-20 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	94%	96.3°F	3.8°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending
ICON	91%	95.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	71%	92.7°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260921-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 14 · 07:56 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 91°F+ · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗