KBNA / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 21 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

95%

94%

91%

71%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 85.2¢Risks 85.25u

WN2NO 14.7¢Risks 14.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +14.75u · WN2 −14.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-14T07:56:51+00:00	92.8%	62.3%	61.6%	20.4%	55.3%
2026-09-14T08:42:09+00:00	92.8%	62.3%	61.6%	20.4%	55.3%
2026-09-14T09:27:14+00:00	92.8%	62.3%	61.6%	20.4%	55.3%
2026-09-14T10:12:19+00:00	92.8%	62.3%	61.6%	20.4%	55.3%
2026-09-15T03:30:24+00:00	64.1%	96.0%	37.6%	71.9%	71.6%
2026-09-15T04:15:39+00:00	64.1%	96.0%	37.6%	71.9%	71.6%
2026-09-15T05:00:45+00:00	64.1%	96.0%	48.3%	71.9%	71.6%
2026-09-15T05:45:51+00:00	64.1%	96.0%	48.3%	71.9%	71.6%
2026-09-15T06:30:58+00:00	64.1%	96.0%	48.3%	71.9%	71.6%
2026-09-15T07:16:03+00:00	64.1%	96.0%	48.3%	71.9%	71.6%
2026-09-15T08:01:21+00:00	82.5%	96.0%	48.3%	95.3%	90.5%
2026-09-15T08:46:42+00:00	82.5%	96.0%	48.3%	95.3%	90.5%
2026-09-15T09:31:47+00:00	82.5%	96.0%	48.3%	95.3%	90.5%
2026-09-15T10:16:53+00:00	82.5%	96.0%	48.3%	95.3%	90.5%
2026-09-15T11:02:04+00:00	82.5%	99.7%	53.6%	95.3%	90.5%
2026-09-15T11:47:16+00:00	82.5%	99.7%	53.6%	95.3%	90.5%
2026-09-15T12:32:21+00:00	82.5%	99.7%	53.6%	95.3%	90.5%
2026-09-15T13:17:26+00:00	82.5%	99.7%	53.6%	95.3%	90.5%
2026-09-15T14:02:35+00:00	89.8%	99.7%	53.6%	89.8%	90.8%
2026-09-15T14:48:53+00:00	89.8%	99.7%	53.6%	89.8%	90.8%
2026-09-15T15:34:00+00:00	89.8%	99.7%	53.6%	95.3%	90.8%
2026-09-15T16:19:08+00:00	89.8%	99.7%	53.6%	95.3%	90.8%
2026-09-15T17:04:22+00:00	89.8%	99.7%	53.6%	95.3%	90.8%
2026-09-15T17:49:29+00:00	89.8%	99.7%	53.6%	95.3%	90.8%
2026-09-15T18:34:38+00:00	89.8%	99.7%	53.6%	95.3%	90.8%
2026-09-15T19:19:43+00:00	89.8%	99.7%	53.6%	95.3%	90.8%
2026-09-15T20:04:49+00:00	88.8%	99.7%	53.6%	95.3%	86.9%
2026-09-15T20:49:54+00:00	88.8%	99.7%	53.6%	95.3%	86.9%
2026-09-15T21:35:04+00:00	88.8%	99.7%	53.6%	95.3%	86.9%
2026-09-15T22:20:09+00:00	88.8%	99.7%	53.6%	95.3%	86.9%
2026-09-15T23:05:15+00:00	88.8%	99.7%	60.6%	91.5%	86.9%
2026-09-15T23:50:22+00:00	88.8%	99.7%	60.6%	91.5%	86.9%
2026-09-16T00:35:28+00:00	88.8%	99.7%	60.6%	91.5%	86.9%
2026-09-16T01:20:36+00:00	88.8%	99.7%	60.6%	91.5%	86.9%
2026-09-16T02:05:48+00:00	80.0%	99.7%	60.6%	91.5%	86.9%
2026-09-16T02:50:59+00:00	80.0%	99.7%	60.6%	91.5%	86.9%
2026-09-16T03:36:14+00:00	80.0%	99.7%	60.6%	91.5%	86.9%
2026-09-16T04:21:32+00:00	80.0%	99.7%	60.6%	91.5%	86.9%
2026-09-16T05:06:38+00:00	80.0%	99.7%	65.6%	91.5%	86.9%
2026-09-16T05:51:45+00:00	80.0%	99.7%	65.6%	91.5%	86.9%
2026-09-16T06:36:55+00:00	80.0%	99.7%	65.6%	91.5%	86.9%
2026-09-16T07:22:07+00:00	80.6%	99.7%	65.6%	97.1%	67.7%
2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00	80.6%	99.7%	65.6%	97.1%	67.7%
2026-09-16T08:52:39+00:00	80.6%	99.7%	65.6%	97.1%	67.7%
2026-09-16T09:37:49+00:00	80.6%	99.7%	65.6%	97.1%	67.7%
2026-09-16T10:22:59+00:00	80.6%	99.7%	65.6%	97.1%	67.7%
2026-09-16T11:08:06+00:00	80.6%	99.8%	74.2%	97.1%	67.7%
2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00	80.6%	99.8%	74.2%	97.1%	67.7%
2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00	80.6%	99.8%	74.2%	97.1%	67.7%
2026-09-16T13:23:26+00:00	85.2%	99.8%	74.2%	97.1%	67.7%
2026-09-16T14:09:45+00:00	85.2%	99.8%	74.2%	97.1%	67.7%
2026-09-16T14:54:54+00:00	85.2%	99.8%	74.2%	97.1%	67.7%
2026-09-16T15:40:07+00:00	85.2%	99.8%	74.2%	97.1%	67.7%
2026-09-16T16:25:13+00:00	85.2%	99.8%	74.2%	93.1%	83.0%
2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00	85.2%	99.8%	69.4%	93.1%	83.0%
2026-09-16T17:55:35+00:00	85.2%	99.8%	69.4%	93.1%	83.0%
2026-09-16T18:40:45+00:00	85.2%	99.8%	69.4%	93.1%	83.0%
2026-09-16T19:25:50+00:00	83.7%	99.8%	69.4%	93.1%	83.0%
2026-09-16T20:10:56+00:00	83.7%	99.8%	69.4%	93.1%	83.0%
2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00	83.7%	99.8%	69.4%	93.1%	83.0%
2026-09-16T21:41:05+00:00	83.7%	99.8%	69.4%	93.1%	83.0%
2026-09-16T22:26:10+00:00	83.7%	99.8%	69.4%	93.1%	83.0%
2026-09-16T23:11:17+00:00	83.8%	99.9%	63.2%	97.1%	83.4%
2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00	83.8%	99.9%	63.2%	97.1%	83.4%
2026-09-17T00:41:33+00:00	83.8%	99.9%	63.2%	97.1%	83.4%
2026-09-17T01:26:47+00:00	87.4%	99.9%	63.2%	97.1%	83.4%
2026-09-17T02:12:06+00:00	87.4%	99.9%	63.2%	97.1%	83.4%
2026-09-17T02:57:15+00:00	87.4%	99.9%	63.2%	97.1%	83.4%
2026-09-17T03:42:32+00:00	87.4%	99.9%	63.2%	97.1%	83.4%
2026-09-17T04:27:40+00:00	87.4%	99.9%	63.2%	97.1%	93.6%
2026-09-17T05:12:46+00:00	87.4%	99.9%	78.0%	97.1%	93.6%
2026-09-17T05:57:53+00:00	87.4%	99.9%	78.0%	97.1%	93.6%
2026-09-17T06:43:01+00:00	87.4%	99.9%	78.0%	97.1%	93.6%
2026-09-17T07:28:05+00:00	91.0%	99.9%	78.0%	97.1%	93.6%
2026-09-17T08:13:10+00:00	91.0%	99.9%	78.0%	97.1%	93.6%
2026-09-17T08:58:15+00:00	91.0%	99.9%	78.0%	97.1%	93.6%
2026-09-17T09:43:23+00:00	91.0%	99.9%	78.0%	97.1%	93.6%
2026-09-17T10:28:36+00:00	91.0%	99.9%	78.0%	97.0%	93.6%
2026-09-17T19:31:38+00:00	77.9%	100.0%	69.6%	97.0%	93.0%
2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:00	77.9%	100.0%	69.6%	97.0%	93.0%
2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:00	77.9%	100.0%	69.6%	97.0%	93.0%
2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00	77.9%	100.0%	69.6%	97.0%	93.0%
2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:00	77.9%	100.0%	69.6%	95.0%	93.0%
2026-09-17T23:17:04+00:00	77.9%	100.0%	71.4%	95.0%	93.0%
2026-09-18T00:02:09+00:00	77.9%	100.0%	71.4%	95.0%	93.0%
2026-09-18T00:47:16+00:00	77.9%	100.0%	71.4%	95.0%	93.0%
2026-09-18T01:32:22+00:00	81.5%	100.0%	71.4%	95.0%	93.0%
2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00	81.5%	100.0%	71.4%	95.0%	93.0%
2026-09-18T05:18:13+00:00	81.5%	100.0%	71.4%	95.0%	92.6%
2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:00	81.5%	100.0%	71.4%	95.0%	92.6%
2026-09-18T06:48:26+00:00	81.5%	100.0%	71.4%	95.0%	92.6%
2026-09-18T11:20:03+00:00	85.7%	99.5%	71.4%	97.9%	92.6%
2026-09-18T12:05:14+00:00	85.7%	99.5%	71.4%	97.9%	92.6%
2026-09-18T12:50:19+00:00	85.7%	99.5%	71.4%	97.9%	92.6%
2026-09-18T13:35:25+00:00	84.1%	99.5%	71.4%	97.9%	92.6%
2026-09-18T14:21:55+00:00	84.1%	99.5%	71.4%	97.9%	92.5%
2026-09-18T15:07:08+00:00	84.1%	99.5%	71.4%	97.9%	92.5%
2026-09-18T15:52:25+00:00	84.1%	99.5%	71.4%	97.9%	92.5%
2026-09-18T16:37:30+00:00	84.1%	99.5%	71.4%	97.9%	93.5%
2026-09-18T17:22:36+00:00	84.1%	99.5%	71.4%	97.9%	93.5%
2026-09-18T18:07:41+00:00	84.1%	99.5%	71.4%	97.9%	93.5%
2026-09-18T18:52:50+00:00	84.1%	99.5%	71.4%	97.9%	93.5%
2026-09-18T19:37:55+00:00	81.8%	99.5%	71.4%	97.9%	93.5%
2026-09-18T20:23:00+00:00	81.8%	99.5%	71.4%	97.9%	93.5%
2026-09-18T21:08:04+00:00	81.8%	99.5%	71.4%	97.9%	93.5%
2026-09-18T21:53:09+00:00	81.8%	99.5%	71.4%	97.9%	93.5%
2026-09-18T22:38:15+00:00	81.8%	99.5%	71.4%	92.8%	93.5%
2026-09-18T23:23:20+00:00	81.8%	99.6%	71.4%	92.8%	93.5%
2026-09-19T00:08:25+00:00	81.8%	99.6%	71.4%	92.8%	93.5%
2026-09-19T00:53:32+00:00	81.8%	99.6%	71.4%	92.8%	93.5%
2026-09-19T01:38:37+00:00	85.2%	99.6%	71.4%	92.8%	93.5%
2026-09-19T02:23:43+00:00	85.2%	99.6%	71.4%	92.8%	93.5%
2026-09-19T03:08:55+00:00	85.2%	99.6%	71.4%	92.8%	93.5%
2026-09-19T03:54:13+00:00	85.2%	99.6%	71.4%	92.8%	93.5%
2026-09-19T04:39:19+00:00	85.2%	99.6%	71.4%	92.8%	87.8%
2026-09-19T05:24:24+00:00	85.2%	99.6%	71.4%	92.8%	87.8%
2026-09-19T06:09:28+00:00	85.2%	99.6%	71.4%	92.8%	87.8%
2026-09-19T06:54:37+00:00	85.2%	99.6%	71.4%	92.8%	87.8%
2026-09-19T07:39:53+00:00	92.6%	99.6%	71.4%	90.4%	87.8%
2026-09-19T08:25:24+00:00	92.6%	99.6%	71.4%	90.4%	87.8%
2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00	92.6%	99.6%	71.4%	90.4%	87.8%
2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00	92.6%	99.6%	71.4%	90.4%	87.8%
2026-09-19T10:40:46+00:00	92.6%	99.6%	71.4%	90.4%	87.8%
2026-09-19T11:25:54+00:00	92.6%	99.1%	71.4%	90.4%	87.8%
2026-09-19T12:11:04+00:00	92.6%	99.1%	71.4%	90.4%	87.8%
2026-09-19T12:56:08+00:00	92.6%	99.1%	71.4%	90.4%	87.8%
2026-09-19T13:41:14+00:00	91.9%	99.1%	71.4%	90.4%	87.8%
2026-09-19T14:27:50+00:00	91.9%	99.1%	71.4%	90.4%	88.4%
2026-09-19T15:13:01+00:00	91.9%	99.2%	71.4%	90.4%	88.4%
2026-09-19T15:58:14+00:00	91.9%	99.2%	71.4%	90.4%	88.4%
2026-09-19T16:43:19+00:00	91.9%	99.2%	71.4%	90.4%	88.4%
2026-09-19T17:28:24+00:00	91.9%	99.2%	71.4%	90.4%	88.4%
2026-09-19T18:13:29+00:00	91.9%	99.2%	71.4%	90.4%	88.4%
2026-09-19T18:58:38+00:00	91.9%	99.2%	71.4%	90.4%	88.4%
2026-09-19T19:43:43+00:00	90.0%	99.2%	71.4%	96.1%	88.4%
2026-09-19T20:28:48+00:00	90.0%	99.2%	71.4%	96.1%	88.4%
2026-09-19T21:13:52+00:00	90.0%	99.2%	71.4%	96.1%	88.4%
2026-09-19T21:58:57+00:00	90.0%	99.2%	71.4%	96.1%	88.4%
2026-09-19T22:44:03+00:00	90.0%	99.2%	71.4%	96.1%	88.4%
2026-09-19T23:29:08+00:00	90.0%	99.2%	71.4%	96.1%	88.4%
2026-09-20T00:14:13+00:00	90.0%	99.2%	71.4%	96.1%	88.4%
2026-09-20T00:59:23+00:00	90.0%	99.2%	71.4%	96.1%	88.4%
2026-09-20T01:44:30+00:00	93.9%	99.2%	71.4%	96.1%	88.4%
2026-09-20T02:29:37+00:00	93.9%	99.2%	71.4%	96.1%	88.4%
2026-09-20T03:14:46+00:00	93.9%	99.2%	71.4%	96.1%	88.4%
2026-09-20T04:00:03+00:00	93.9%	99.2%	71.4%	96.1%	88.4%
2026-09-20T04:45:09+00:00	93.9%	99.2%	71.4%	96.1%	88.8%
2026-09-20T05:30:14+00:00	93.9%	99.2%	71.4%	96.1%	88.8%
2026-09-20T06:15:19+00:00	93.9%	99.2%	71.4%	96.1%	88.8%
2026-09-20T07:00:27+00:00	93.9%	99.2%	71.4%	96.1%	88.8%
2026-09-20T07:45:42+00:00	94.7%	99.2%	71.4%	88.0%	88.8%
2026-09-20T08:31:12+00:00	94.7%	99.2%	71.4%	88.0%	88.8%
2026-09-20T09:16:17+00:00	94.7%	99.2%	71.4%	88.0%	88.8%
2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00	94.7%	99.2%	71.4%	88.0%	88.8%
2026-09-20T10:46:26+00:00	94.7%	99.2%	71.4%	88.0%	88.8%
2026-09-20T11:31:33+00:00	94.7%	99.2%	71.4%	88.0%	88.8%
2026-09-20T12:16:52+00:00	94.7%	99.2%	71.4%	88.0%	88.8%
2026-09-20T13:01:57+00:00	94.7%	99.2%	71.4%	88.0%	88.8%
2026-09-20T13:47:03+00:00	94.1%	99.2%	71.4%	88.0%	88.8%
2026-09-20T14:33:34+00:00	94.1%	99.1%	71.3%	88.0%	88.8%
2026-09-20T15:18:48+00:00	94.1%	99.3%	71.3%	88.0%	88.8%
2026-09-20T16:04:07+00:00	94.1%	99.3%	71.3%	88.0%	88.8%
2026-09-20T16:49:12+00:00	94.1%	99.3%	71.3%	88.0%	90.8%
2026-09-20T17:34:18+00:00	94.1%	99.3%	71.3%	88.0%	90.8%
2026-09-20T18:19:23+00:00	94.1%	99.3%	71.3%	88.0%	90.8%
2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00	94.1%	99.3%	71.3%	88.0%	90.8%
2026-09-20T19:49:36+00:00	93.5%	99.3%	71.3%	88.0%	90.8%
2026-09-20T20:34:41+00:00	93.5%	99.3%	71.3%	88.0%	90.8%
2026-09-20T21:19:46+00:00	93.5%	99.3%	71.3%	88.0%	90.8%
2026-09-20T22:04:50+00:00	93.5%	99.3%	71.3%	88.0%	90.8%
2026-09-20T22:49:58+00:00	93.5%	99.3%	71.3%	93.9%	90.8%
2026-09-20T23:35:04+00:00	93.5%	99.2%	71.3%	93.9%	90.8%
2026-09-21T00:20:13+00:00	93.5%	99.2%	71.3%	93.9%	90.8%
2026-09-21T01:05:23+00:00	93.5%	99.2%	71.3%	93.9%	90.8%
2026-09-21T01:50:29+00:00	94.9%	99.2%	71.3%	93.9%	90.8%
2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00	94.9%	99.2%	71.3%	93.9%	90.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	97.0°F	2.7°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	98%	97.0°F	3.2°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	96%	96.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-20 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	97.2°F	4.1°F	2026-09-20 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	94%	96.3°F	3.8°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending
ICON	91%	95.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	71%	92.7°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260921-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 14 · 07:56 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 91°F+ · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗