KBNA / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 95°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Sep 17 · 02:12 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

89%

63%

61%

26%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 61.2¢Risks 61.20u

WN2NO 38.8¢Risks 38.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +38.80u · WN2 −38.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	18.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	39.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	39.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	13.9%	—	—	22.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	18.9%	—	11.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	9.3%	22.6%	—	62.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.7%	53.0%	58.3%	4.1%	—	64.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	24.2%	35.9%	22.4%	—	71.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	0.7%	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	45.0%	44.2%	0.8%	—	71.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	31.1%	78.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	65.4%	81.0%	3.8%	—	62.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	59.8%	89.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	64.4%	60.0%	19.0%	—	67.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	69.1%	73.2%	—	—	64.8%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	60.6%	74.5%	4.2%	—	58.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	63.7%	81.7%	—	—	60.9%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	64.1%	80.3%	16.3%	—	53.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	58.4%	63.5%	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	56.5%	48.9%	23.8%	60.8%	57.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	27.6%	63.3%	40.0%	0.1%	—	61.1%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	57.0%	64.8%	37.4%	46.5%	51.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	33.6%	67.5%	65.3%	51.2%	—	52.4%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	70.2%	75.4%	46.3%	1.8%	63.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	84.2%	68.7%	43.6%	—	61.5%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	76.0%	52.7%	58.0%	38.1%	51.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	75.8%	40.3%	30.0%	—	51.4%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	80.9%	42.8%	66.9%	44.2%	45.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	89.5%	36.6%	50.0%	—	61.9%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	85.8%	75.0%	48.4%	29.0%	50.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	90.1%	84.0%	67.6%	—	90.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	99.2°F	2.7°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	101.6°F	5.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	96.2°F	5.0°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	61%	96.2°F	5.9°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	95.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	95.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-16 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	91.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 95°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260921-TMAX-GE95
Opened Sep 16 · 03:36 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 95°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗