KBNA / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 95°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Sep 17 · 02:12 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

89%

63%

61%

26%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 61.2¢Risks 61.20u

WN2NO 38.8¢Risks 38.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +38.80u · WN2 −38.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-17T02:12:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-16T03:36:14+00:00	53.7%	89.6%	26.6%	77.9%	70.2%
2026-09-16T04:21:32+00:00	53.7%	89.6%	26.6%	77.9%	70.2%
2026-09-16T05:06:38+00:00	53.7%	89.6%	31.1%	77.9%	70.2%
2026-09-16T05:51:45+00:00	53.7%	89.6%	31.1%	77.9%	70.2%
2026-09-16T06:36:55+00:00	53.7%	89.6%	31.1%	77.9%	70.2%
2026-09-16T07:22:07+00:00	52.4%	89.6%	31.1%	88.7%	41.2%
2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00	52.4%	89.6%	31.1%	88.7%	41.2%
2026-09-16T08:52:39+00:00	52.4%	89.6%	31.1%	88.7%	41.2%
2026-09-16T09:37:49+00:00	52.4%	89.6%	31.1%	88.7%	41.2%
2026-09-16T10:22:59+00:00	52.4%	89.6%	31.1%	88.7%	41.2%
2026-09-16T11:08:06+00:00	52.4%	92.3%	37.7%	88.7%	41.2%
2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00	52.4%	92.3%	37.7%	88.7%	41.2%
2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00	52.4%	92.3%	37.7%	88.7%	41.2%
2026-09-16T13:23:26+00:00	59.5%	92.3%	37.7%	88.7%	41.2%
2026-09-16T14:09:45+00:00	59.5%	92.3%	37.7%	88.8%	41.3%
2026-09-16T14:54:54+00:00	59.5%	92.8%	37.7%	88.8%	41.3%
2026-09-16T15:40:07+00:00	59.5%	92.8%	37.7%	88.8%	41.3%
2026-09-16T16:25:13+00:00	59.5%	92.8%	37.7%	82.8%	60.7%
2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00	59.5%	92.8%	32.4%	82.8%	60.7%
2026-09-16T17:55:35+00:00	59.5%	92.8%	32.4%	82.8%	60.7%
2026-09-16T18:40:45+00:00	59.5%	92.8%	32.4%	82.8%	60.7%
2026-09-16T19:25:50+00:00	57.2%	92.8%	32.4%	82.8%	60.7%
2026-09-16T20:10:56+00:00	57.2%	92.8%	32.4%	82.8%	60.7%
2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00	57.2%	92.8%	32.4%	82.8%	60.7%
2026-09-16T21:41:05+00:00	57.2%	92.8%	32.4%	82.8%	60.7%
2026-09-16T22:26:10+00:00	57.2%	92.8%	32.4%	82.8%	60.7%
2026-09-16T23:11:17+00:00	57.2%	95.9%	26.5%	88.8%	61.4%
2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00	57.2%	95.9%	26.5%	88.8%	61.4%
2026-09-17T00:41:33+00:00	57.2%	95.9%	26.5%	88.8%	61.4%
2026-09-17T01:26:47+00:00	63.4%	95.9%	26.5%	88.8%	61.4%
2026-09-17T02:12:06+00:00	63.4%	95.9%	26.5%	88.8%	61.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	99.2°F	2.7°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	101.6°F	5.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	96.2°F	5.0°F	2026-09-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	61%	96.2°F	5.9°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	95.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	95.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-16 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	91.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 95°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260921-TMAX-GE95
Opened Sep 16 · 03:36 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 95°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗