KBNA / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 98°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Sep 21 · 10:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

43%

37%

36%

20%

11%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 26.9¢Risks 26.85u

WN2NO 73.2¢Risks 73.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +73.15u · WN2 −73.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	8.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	23.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	22.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	13.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	5.6%	—	—	10.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	7.9%	—	4.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	3.1%	9.6%	—	41.3%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	30.9%	35.8%	1.0%	—	41.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	27.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	9.7%	16.9%	8.7%	—	49.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	0.1%	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	22.5%	21.9%	0.1%	—	47.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	12.8%	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	39.6%	58.7%	0.7%	—	37.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	33.4%	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	37.3%	33.0%	5.8%	—	40.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	41.5%	46.2%	—	—	37.0%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	32.1%	47.1%	0.7%	—	30.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	34.4%	56.0%	—	—	31.7%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	34.0%	53.1%	4.0%	—	24.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	27.9%	32.6%	—	—	17.6%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	25.5%	19.8%	6.2%	29.2%	26.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	30.5%	13.5%	0.0%	—	28.6%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	24.2%	31.0%	11.6%	16.8%	19.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	32.5%	30.4%	19.1%	—	19.9%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	34.2%	40.1%	15.1%	0.1%	27.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	51.3%	31.4%	12.8%	—	24.8%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	38.1%	17.3%	21.0%	9.5%	16.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	36.3%	9.8%	5.8%	—	15.6%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	41.4%	10.2%	25.6%	10.8%	11.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	54.5%	7.0%	12.8%	—	20.2%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	45.3%	30.3%	11.0%	4.1%	11.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	51.6%	40.2%	21.6%	—	53.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	98.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-21 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	97.0°F	2.7°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	96.3°F	3.8°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	96.4°F	3.0°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	96.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
ICON	20%	94.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	92.7°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 98°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260921-TMAX-GE98
Opened Sep 17 · 02:57 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 98°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗