KBNA / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 98°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Sep 21 · 10:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

43%

37%

36%

20%

11%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 26.9¢Risks 26.85u

WN2NO 73.2¢Risks 73.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +73.15u · WN2 −73.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-17T02:57:15+00:00	39.7%	73.6%	8.9%	75.9%	41.3%
2026-09-17T03:42:32+00:00	39.7%	73.6%	8.9%	75.9%	41.3%
2026-09-17T04:27:40+00:00	39.7%	73.6%	8.9%	75.9%	51.7%
2026-09-17T05:12:46+00:00	39.7%	73.6%	18.0%	75.9%	51.7%
2026-09-17T05:57:53+00:00	39.7%	73.6%	18.0%	75.9%	51.7%
2026-09-17T06:43:01+00:00	39.7%	73.6%	18.0%	75.9%	51.7%
2026-09-17T07:28:05+00:00	44.1%	73.6%	18.0%	75.9%	51.7%
2026-09-17T08:13:10+00:00	44.1%	73.6%	18.0%	75.9%	51.7%
2026-09-17T08:58:15+00:00	44.1%	73.6%	18.0%	75.9%	51.7%
2026-09-17T09:43:23+00:00	44.1%	73.6%	18.0%	75.9%	51.7%
2026-09-17T10:28:36+00:00	44.1%	73.6%	18.0%	68.9%	51.7%
2026-09-17T11:14:04+00:00	44.1%	59.0%	15.3%	68.9%	51.7%
2026-09-17T11:59:12+00:00	44.1%	59.0%	15.3%	68.9%	51.7%
2026-09-17T12:44:17+00:00	44.1%	59.0%	15.3%	68.9%	51.7%
2026-09-17T13:29:22+00:00	37.5%	59.0%	15.3%	68.9%	51.7%
2026-09-17T14:15:36+00:00	37.4%	59.0%	15.2%	68.9%	51.7%
2026-09-17T15:00:48+00:00	37.4%	59.0%	15.2%	68.9%	51.7%
2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:00	37.4%	59.0%	15.2%	68.9%	51.7%
2026-09-17T16:31:11+00:00	37.4%	59.0%	15.2%	68.9%	50.0%
2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:00	37.4%	59.0%	9.9%	68.9%	50.0%
2026-09-17T18:01:24+00:00	37.4%	59.0%	9.9%	68.9%	50.0%
2026-09-17T18:46:33+00:00	37.4%	59.0%	9.9%	68.9%	50.0%
2026-09-17T19:31:38+00:00	23.4%	59.0%	9.9%	68.9%	50.0%
2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:00	23.4%	59.0%	9.9%	68.9%	50.0%
2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:00	23.4%	59.0%	9.9%	68.9%	50.0%
2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00	23.4%	59.0%	9.9%	68.9%	50.0%
2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:00	23.4%	59.0%	9.9%	60.1%	50.0%
2026-09-17T23:17:04+00:00	23.4%	60.7%	10.9%	60.1%	50.0%
2026-09-18T00:02:09+00:00	23.4%	60.7%	10.9%	60.1%	50.0%
2026-09-18T00:47:16+00:00	23.4%	60.7%	10.9%	60.1%	50.0%
2026-09-18T01:32:22+00:00	27.5%	60.7%	10.9%	60.1%	50.0%
2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00	27.5%	60.7%	10.9%	60.1%	50.0%
2026-09-18T03:02:40+00:00	27.5%	60.7%	10.9%	60.1%	50.0%
2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:00	27.5%	60.7%	10.9%	60.1%	50.0%
2026-09-18T04:33:08+00:00	27.5%	60.7%	10.9%	60.1%	35.9%
2026-09-18T05:18:13+00:00	27.5%	60.7%	10.9%	60.1%	35.9%
2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:00	27.5%	60.7%	10.9%	60.1%	35.9%
2026-09-18T06:48:26+00:00	27.5%	60.7%	10.9%	60.1%	35.9%
2026-09-18T07:33:40+00:00	30.1%	60.7%	10.9%	68.7%	35.9%
2026-09-18T08:19:07+00:00	30.1%	60.7%	10.9%	68.7%	35.9%
2026-09-18T09:04:14+00:00	30.1%	60.7%	10.9%	68.7%	35.9%
2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:00	30.1%	60.7%	10.9%	68.7%	35.9%
2026-09-18T10:34:35+00:00	30.1%	60.7%	10.9%	68.7%	35.9%
2026-09-18T11:20:03+00:00	30.1%	52.8%	10.9%	68.7%	35.9%
2026-09-18T12:05:14+00:00	30.1%	52.8%	10.9%	68.7%	35.9%
2026-09-18T12:50:19+00:00	30.1%	52.8%	10.9%	68.7%	35.9%
2026-09-18T13:35:25+00:00	27.8%	52.8%	10.9%	68.7%	35.9%
2026-09-18T14:21:55+00:00	27.8%	52.8%	10.9%	68.7%	35.9%
2026-09-18T15:07:08+00:00	27.8%	52.8%	10.9%	68.7%	35.9%
2026-09-18T15:52:25+00:00	27.8%	52.8%	10.9%	68.7%	35.9%
2026-09-18T16:37:30+00:00	27.8%	52.8%	10.9%	68.7%	38.9%
2026-09-18T17:22:36+00:00	27.8%	52.8%	10.9%	68.7%	38.9%
2026-09-18T18:07:41+00:00	27.8%	52.8%	10.9%	68.7%	38.9%
2026-09-18T18:52:50+00:00	27.8%	52.8%	10.9%	68.7%	38.9%
2026-09-18T19:37:55+00:00	24.8%	52.8%	10.9%	68.7%	38.9%
2026-09-18T20:23:00+00:00	24.8%	52.8%	10.9%	68.7%	38.9%
2026-09-18T21:08:04+00:00	24.8%	52.8%	10.9%	68.7%	38.9%
2026-09-18T21:53:09+00:00	24.8%	52.8%	10.9%	68.7%	38.9%
2026-09-18T22:38:15+00:00	24.8%	52.8%	10.9%	46.5%	38.9%
2026-09-18T23:23:20+00:00	24.8%	55.6%	10.9%	46.5%	38.9%
2026-09-19T00:08:25+00:00	24.8%	55.6%	10.9%	46.5%	38.9%
2026-09-19T00:53:32+00:00	24.8%	55.6%	10.9%	46.5%	38.9%
2026-09-19T01:38:37+00:00	29.3%	55.6%	10.9%	46.5%	38.9%
2026-09-19T02:23:43+00:00	29.3%	55.6%	10.9%	46.5%	38.9%
2026-09-19T03:08:55+00:00	29.3%	55.6%	10.9%	46.5%	38.9%
2026-09-19T03:54:13+00:00	29.3%	55.6%	10.9%	46.5%	38.9%
2026-09-19T04:39:19+00:00	29.3%	55.6%	10.9%	46.5%	20.5%
2026-09-19T05:24:24+00:00	29.3%	55.6%	10.9%	46.5%	20.5%
2026-09-19T06:09:28+00:00	29.3%	55.6%	10.9%	46.5%	20.5%
2026-09-19T06:54:37+00:00	29.3%	55.6%	10.9%	46.5%	20.5%
2026-09-19T07:39:53+00:00	41.5%	55.6%	10.9%	35.0%	20.5%
2026-09-19T08:25:24+00:00	41.5%	55.6%	10.9%	35.0%	20.5%
2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00	41.5%	55.6%	10.9%	35.0%	20.5%
2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00	41.5%	55.6%	10.9%	35.0%	20.5%
2026-09-19T10:40:46+00:00	41.5%	55.6%	10.9%	35.0%	20.5%
2026-09-19T11:25:54+00:00	41.5%	42.7%	10.9%	35.0%	20.5%
2026-09-19T12:11:04+00:00	41.5%	42.7%	10.9%	35.0%	20.5%
2026-09-19T12:56:08+00:00	41.5%	42.7%	10.9%	35.0%	20.5%
2026-09-19T13:41:14+00:00	39.7%	42.7%	10.9%	35.0%	20.5%
2026-09-19T14:27:50+00:00	39.7%	42.7%	10.9%	34.9%	21.3%
2026-09-20T03:14:46+00:00	45.3%	44.2%	10.9%	52.9%	21.3%
2026-09-20T04:00:03+00:00	45.3%	44.2%	10.9%	52.9%	21.3%
2026-09-20T04:45:09+00:00	45.3%	44.2%	10.9%	52.9%	22.2%
2026-09-20T05:30:14+00:00	45.3%	44.2%	10.9%	52.9%	22.2%
2026-09-20T06:15:19+00:00	45.3%	44.2%	10.9%	52.9%	22.2%
2026-09-20T07:00:27+00:00	45.3%	44.2%	10.9%	52.9%	22.2%
2026-09-20T07:45:42+00:00	46.1%	44.2%	10.9%	24.4%	22.2%
2026-09-20T08:31:12+00:00	46.1%	44.2%	10.9%	24.4%	22.2%
2026-09-20T09:16:17+00:00	46.1%	44.2%	10.9%	24.4%	22.2%
2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00	46.1%	44.2%	10.9%	24.4%	22.2%
2026-09-20T10:46:26+00:00	46.1%	44.2%	10.9%	24.4%	22.2%
2026-09-20T11:31:33+00:00	46.1%	39.5%	10.9%	24.4%	22.2%
2026-09-20T12:16:52+00:00	46.1%	39.5%	10.9%	24.4%	22.2%
2026-09-20T13:01:57+00:00	46.1%	39.5%	10.9%	24.4%	22.2%
2026-09-20T13:47:03+00:00	44.2%	39.5%	10.9%	24.4%	22.2%
2026-09-20T14:33:34+00:00	44.2%	39.5%	11.0%	24.4%	22.3%
2026-09-21T03:20:45+00:00	47.1%	42.7%	11.0%	37.4%	25.8%
2026-09-21T04:06:01+00:00	47.1%	42.7%	11.0%	37.4%	25.8%
2026-09-21T04:51:09+00:00	47.1%	42.7%	11.0%	37.4%	19.8%
2026-09-21T05:36:17+00:00	47.1%	42.7%	11.0%	37.4%	19.8%
2026-09-21T06:21:22+00:00	47.1%	42.7%	11.0%	37.4%	19.8%
2026-09-21T07:06:30+00:00	47.1%	42.7%	11.0%	37.4%	19.8%
2026-09-21T07:51:35+00:00	35.9%	42.7%	11.0%	37.4%	19.8%
2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00	35.9%	42.7%	11.0%	37.4%	19.8%
2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00	35.9%	42.7%	11.0%	37.4%	19.8%
2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00	35.9%	42.7%	11.0%	37.4%	19.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	98.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-21 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	97.0°F	2.7°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	96.3°F	3.8°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	96.4°F	3.0°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	96.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
ICON	20%	94.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	92.7°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 98°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260921-TMAX-GE98
Opened Sep 17 · 02:57 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 98°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗