KBNA / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Sep 16 · 02:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

93%

92%

92%

77%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 88.3¢Risks 88.35u

ICONNO 11.7¢Risks 11.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +11.65u · ICON −11.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	53.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	45.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	87.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	68.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	25.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	25.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	82.8%	—	—	61.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	—	—	—	40.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	24.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	87.2%	—	—	87.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	96.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	97.5%	53.5%	—	93.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	65.7%	42.7%	95.8%	94.5%	—	96.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	62.7%	97.2%	50.8%	—	94.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	97.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	93.3%	98.4%	81.1%	—	95.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.1%	88.2%	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	94.4%	99.1%	30.8%	—	90.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	56.0%	98.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	86.9%	96.9%	70.1%	—	81.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	78.5%	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	94.7%	97.4%	25.1%	—	81.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	97.3%	76.9%	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	81.0%	98.3%	51.9%	—	90.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	61.8%	99.3%	—	—	84.8%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	31.2%	93.3%	39.8%	—	82.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	55.3%	94.5%	—	—	21.3%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	85.7%	97.7%	35.1%	—	88.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	76.9%	85.2%	92.5%	14.1%	—	98.8%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	63.7%	88.4%	92.4%	85.3%	93.5%	93.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	57.2%	57.2%	44.0%	40.5%	—	91.8%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	61.1%	32.0%	73.4%	48.8%	90.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	46.1%	90.2%	95.7%	76.2%	—	86.5%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	93.9%	95.7%	71.6%	98.3%	77.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	96.0%	97.3%	80.9%	—	97.5%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	99.7%	98.2%	85.4%	99.7%	98.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	95.9%	99.6%	78.7%	—	90.8%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	29.0%	96.3%	98.2%	53.2%	98.5%	69.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	41.8%	78.5%	9.2%	—	38.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	95.6°F	5.5°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	89.7°F	5.5°F	2026-09-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	90.4°F	6.2°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	88.3°F	4.8°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
ICON	77%	88.8°F	9.8°F	2026-09-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	82.4°F	6.4°F	2026-09-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260922-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 15 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗