KBNA / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Sep 15 · 10:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

80%

67%

62%

57%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 70.2¢Risks 70.15u

ICONNO 29.8¢Risks 29.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +29.85u · ICON −29.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	29.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	65.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	13.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	68.2%	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	73.5%	—	—	74.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	92.3%	33.0%	—	83.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	88.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	23.2%	88.0%	85.2%	—	90.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	88.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	40.2%	91.0%	28.9%	—	84.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	81.6%	93.8%	61.0%	—	85.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	71.7%	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	83.2%	95.7%	12.9%	—	75.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	31.1%	92.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	67.8%	88.7%	44.8%	—	59.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	54.5%	97.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	82.2%	89.4%	8.6%	—	57.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	88.7%	50.9%	—	—	0.8%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	55.8%	91.8%	24.7%	—	71.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	32.6%	95.6%	—	—	60.9%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	10.3%	76.5%	15.1%	—	56.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	25.3%	78.7%	—	—	5.5%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	59.7%	88.1%	11.4%	—	64.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	57.8%	72.4%	2.7%	—	92.1%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	62.6%	71.0%	57.0%	74.0%	73.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	23.4%	14.5%	12.6%	—	68.5%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	25.6%	8.0%	37.7%	16.6%	64.6%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	62.7%	77.2%	39.8%	—	55.1%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	70.5%	76.0%	33.1%	86.6%	39.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	75.8%	80.9%	43.1%	—	81.8%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	95.3%	84.6%	48.5%	94.9%	84.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	72.8%	94.0%	36.6%	—	57.5%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	72.4%	81.9%	13.4%	83.9%	25.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.3%	32.4%	0.5%	—	6.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	83%	89.9°F	5.6°F	2026-09-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	89.8°F	6.2°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	87.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	86.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-14 18:00	Pending
ICON	57%	86.2°F	9.8°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	85.4°F	6.6°F	2026-09-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260922-TMAX-GE85
Opened Sep 15 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 85°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗