KBNA / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Sep 20 · 14:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

34%

30%

26%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.3¢Risks 47.30u

ICONNO 52.7¢Risks 52.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.70u · ICON −52.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	8.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	30.2%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	31.8%	—	—	13.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	34.8%	—	—	36.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	64.4%	6.7%	—	47.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	3.3%	52.9%	47.8%	—	57.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	53.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	8.1%	57.6%	4.4%	—	43.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	38.2%	63.3%	17.9%	—	43.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	25.6%	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	38.5%	67.8%	0.9%	—	28.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	3.8%	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	19.6%	45.6%	7.3%	—	14.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	10.8%	70.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	32.2%	44.5%	0.3%	—	11.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	41.5%	8.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	9.4%	47.1%	1.6%	—	18.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	2.5%	58.0%	—	—	11.0%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	0.2%	20.4%	0.5%	—	8.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	1.2%	21.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	8.1%	32.1%	0.2%	—	10.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	6.7%	13.5%	0.0%	—	38.9%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	7.6%	11.6%	5.7%	13.4%	12.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%	—	9.2%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.6%	0.1%	1.4%	0.2%	6.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.3%	11.5%	1.4%	—	3.5%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.0%	9.5%	0.7%	18.2%	1.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	8.1%	11.1%	1.2%	—	11.8%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	30.5%	12.2%	1.3%	29.3%	12.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.8%	23.6%	0.4%	—	1.8%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.7%	7.1%	0.0%	8.3%	0.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	94.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	91.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-20 02:00	Pending
National Blend	40%	89.0°F	5.7°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	88.8°F	4.1°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	30%	88.3°F	4.2°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	87.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	6%	84.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260922-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 16 · 14:54 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗