KBNA / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Sep 20 · 14:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

34%

30%

26%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.3¢Risks 47.30u

ICONNO 52.7¢Risks 52.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.70u · ICON −52.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-20T14:33:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-16T14:54:54+00:00	16.0%	89.3%	49.1%	85.8%	62.7%
2026-09-16T15:40:07+00:00	16.0%	89.3%	49.1%	85.8%	62.7%
2026-09-16T16:25:13+00:00	16.0%	89.3%	49.1%	79.5%	27.3%
2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00	16.0%	89.3%	39.4%	79.5%	27.3%
2026-09-16T17:55:35+00:00	16.0%	89.3%	39.4%	79.5%	27.3%
2026-09-16T18:40:45+00:00	16.0%	89.3%	39.4%	79.5%	27.3%
2026-09-16T19:25:50+00:00	30.7%	89.3%	39.4%	51.4%	27.3%
2026-09-16T20:10:56+00:00	30.7%	89.3%	39.4%	51.4%	27.3%
2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00	30.7%	89.3%	39.4%	51.4%	27.3%
2026-09-16T21:41:05+00:00	30.7%	89.3%	39.4%	51.4%	27.3%
2026-09-16T22:26:10+00:00	30.7%	89.3%	39.4%	51.4%	27.3%
2026-09-16T23:11:17+00:00	30.7%	94.0%	30.3%	51.8%	27.3%
2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00	30.7%	94.0%	30.3%	51.8%	27.3%
2026-09-17T00:41:33+00:00	30.7%	94.0%	30.3%	51.8%	27.3%
2026-09-17T01:26:47+00:00	26.8%	94.0%	30.3%	51.8%	27.3%
2026-09-17T02:12:06+00:00	26.8%	94.0%	30.3%	51.8%	27.3%
2026-09-18T03:02:40+00:00	18.8%	80.8%	25.8%	58.1%	56.1%
2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:00	18.8%	80.8%	25.8%	58.1%	56.1%
2026-09-18T04:33:08+00:00	18.8%	80.8%	25.8%	58.1%	29.9%
2026-09-18T05:18:13+00:00	18.8%	80.8%	25.8%	58.1%	29.9%
2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:00	18.8%	80.8%	25.8%	58.1%	29.9%
2026-09-18T06:48:26+00:00	18.8%	80.8%	25.8%	58.1%	29.9%
2026-09-18T07:33:40+00:00	25.4%	80.8%	25.8%	52.4%	29.9%
2026-09-18T08:19:07+00:00	25.4%	80.8%	25.8%	52.4%	29.9%
2026-09-18T09:04:14+00:00	25.4%	80.8%	25.8%	52.4%	29.9%
2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:00	25.4%	80.8%	25.8%	52.4%	29.9%
2026-09-18T10:34:35+00:00	25.4%	80.8%	25.8%	52.4%	29.9%
2026-09-18T11:20:03+00:00	25.4%	67.2%	25.8%	52.4%	29.9%
2026-09-18T12:05:14+00:00	25.4%	67.2%	25.8%	52.4%	29.9%
2026-09-18T12:50:19+00:00	25.4%	67.2%	25.8%	52.4%	29.9%
2026-09-18T13:35:25+00:00	34.2%	67.2%	25.8%	52.4%	29.9%
2026-09-18T14:21:55+00:00	34.2%	67.1%	25.8%	52.4%	29.9%
2026-09-18T15:07:08+00:00	34.2%	67.6%	25.8%	52.4%	29.9%
2026-09-18T15:52:25+00:00	34.2%	67.6%	25.8%	52.4%	29.9%
2026-09-18T16:37:30+00:00	34.2%	67.6%	25.8%	52.4%	45.0%
2026-09-18T17:22:36+00:00	34.2%	67.6%	25.8%	52.4%	45.0%
2026-09-18T18:07:41+00:00	34.2%	67.6%	25.8%	52.4%	45.0%
2026-09-18T18:52:50+00:00	34.2%	67.6%	25.8%	52.4%	45.0%
2026-09-18T19:37:55+00:00	19.0%	67.6%	25.8%	52.4%	45.0%
2026-09-18T20:23:00+00:00	19.0%	67.6%	25.8%	52.4%	45.0%
2026-09-18T21:08:04+00:00	19.0%	67.6%	25.8%	52.4%	45.0%
2026-09-18T21:53:09+00:00	19.0%	67.6%	25.8%	52.4%	45.0%
2026-09-18T22:38:15+00:00	19.0%	67.6%	25.8%	25.1%	45.0%
2026-09-18T23:23:20+00:00	19.0%	68.5%	25.8%	25.1%	45.0%
2026-09-19T00:08:25+00:00	19.0%	68.5%	25.8%	25.1%	45.0%
2026-09-19T00:53:32+00:00	19.0%	68.5%	25.8%	25.1%	45.0%
2026-09-19T01:38:37+00:00	17.9%	68.5%	25.8%	25.1%	45.0%
2026-09-19T02:23:43+00:00	17.9%	68.5%	25.8%	25.1%	45.0%
2026-09-19T03:08:55+00:00	17.9%	68.5%	25.8%	25.1%	45.0%
2026-09-19T03:54:13+00:00	17.9%	68.5%	25.8%	25.1%	45.0%
2026-09-19T04:39:19+00:00	17.9%	68.5%	25.8%	25.1%	10.4%
2026-09-19T05:24:24+00:00	17.9%	68.5%	25.8%	25.1%	10.4%
2026-09-19T06:09:28+00:00	17.9%	68.5%	25.8%	25.1%	10.4%
2026-09-19T06:54:37+00:00	17.9%	68.5%	25.8%	25.1%	10.4%
2026-09-19T07:39:53+00:00	29.3%	68.5%	25.8%	31.3%	10.4%
2026-09-19T08:25:24+00:00	29.3%	68.5%	25.8%	31.3%	10.4%
2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00	29.3%	68.5%	25.8%	31.3%	10.4%
2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00	29.3%	68.5%	25.8%	31.3%	10.4%
2026-09-19T10:40:46+00:00	29.3%	68.5%	25.8%	31.3%	10.4%
2026-09-19T11:25:54+00:00	29.3%	70.9%	25.8%	31.3%	10.4%
2026-09-19T12:11:04+00:00	29.3%	70.9%	25.8%	31.3%	10.4%
2026-09-19T12:56:08+00:00	29.3%	70.9%	25.8%	31.3%	10.4%
2026-09-19T13:41:14+00:00	18.8%	70.9%	25.8%	31.3%	10.4%
2026-09-19T14:27:50+00:00	18.8%	70.9%	25.8%	31.3%	10.4%
2026-09-20T03:14:46+00:00	27.7%	71.9%	25.8%	14.4%	0.4%
2026-09-20T04:00:03+00:00	27.7%	71.9%	25.8%	14.4%	0.4%
2026-09-20T04:45:09+00:00	27.7%	71.9%	25.8%	14.4%	5.9%
2026-09-20T05:30:14+00:00	27.7%	71.9%	25.8%	14.4%	5.9%
2026-09-20T06:15:19+00:00	27.7%	71.9%	25.8%	14.4%	5.9%
2026-09-20T07:00:27+00:00	27.7%	71.9%	25.8%	14.4%	5.9%
2026-09-20T07:45:42+00:00	19.0%	71.9%	25.8%	34.0%	5.9%
2026-09-20T08:31:12+00:00	19.0%	71.9%	25.8%	34.0%	5.9%
2026-09-20T09:16:17+00:00	19.0%	71.9%	25.8%	34.0%	5.9%
2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00	19.0%	71.9%	25.8%	34.0%	5.9%
2026-09-20T10:46:26+00:00	19.0%	71.9%	25.8%	34.0%	5.9%
2026-09-20T11:31:33+00:00	19.0%	89.1%	25.8%	34.0%	5.9%
2026-09-20T12:16:52+00:00	19.0%	89.1%	25.8%	34.0%	5.9%
2026-09-20T13:01:57+00:00	19.0%	89.1%	25.8%	34.0%	5.9%
2026-09-20T13:47:03+00:00	30.1%	89.1%	25.8%	34.0%	5.9%
2026-09-20T14:33:34+00:00	30.0%	89.0%	25.8%	34.0%	5.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	94.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	91.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-20 02:00	Pending
National Blend	40%	89.0°F	5.7°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	88.8°F	4.1°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	30%	88.3°F	4.2°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	87.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	6%	84.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260922-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 16 · 14:54 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗