KBNA / Tue Sep 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

45%

43%

13%

10%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 38.3¢Risks 38.30u

AIFSNO 61.7¢Risks 61.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +61.70u · AIFS −61.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	7.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	12.9%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	20.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	21.6%	—	—	7.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	23.3%	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	50.7%	3.2%	—	33.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	1.4%	38.5%	33.7%	—	42.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	3.8%	42.4%	1.8%	—	29.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	24.2%	47.6%	9.3%	—	28.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	14.4%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	23.8%	51.7%	0.2%	—	16.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.4%	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	9.7%	29.1%	2.9%	—	6.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	4.5%	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	17.8%	27.4%	0.1%	—	4.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	24.6%	3.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	3.5%	28.7%	0.4%	—	8.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.7%	38.2%	—	—	4.2%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.0%	9.0%	0.1%	—	2.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.3%	9.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.6%	15.5%	0.0%	—	3.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.9%	4.8%	0.0%	—	19.8%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.2%	3.8%	1.5%	4.5%	4.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	2.7%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	1.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.2%	3.2%	0.2%	—	0.7%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.6%	2.4%	0.1%	5.7%	0.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.8%	2.7%	0.1%	—	3.0%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	10.8%	2.9%	0.2%	10.2%	2.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	7.0%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	1.2%	0.0%	1.5%	0.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	67%	94.5°F	4.6°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	93.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-17 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	91.7°F	5.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	92.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	43%	91.4°F	5.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	87.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	86.1°F	5.0°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260922-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 17 · 02:57 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 93°F · Tue Sep 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗