KBNA / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 100°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 16 · 18:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 12.1¢Risks 12.10u

WN2NO 87.9¢Risks 87.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +87.90u · WN2 −87.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.7%	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	8.5%	—	—	1.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	0.8%	—	—	1.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	2.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	5.1%	0.0%	—	0.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	1.4%	0.2%	—	0.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	24%	93.7°F	8.2°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	8%	85.4°F	9.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	88.4°F	6.6°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	92.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	1%	87.3°F	5.5°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	86.6°F	4.8°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 100°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260923-TMAX-GE100
Opened Sep 16 · 07:22 UTC

Original listing: Triple digits in Nashville · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗