KBNA / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 100°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 16 · 18:40 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 12.1¢Risks 12.10u

WN2NO 87.9¢Risks 87.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +87.90u · WN2 −87.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-16T18:40:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-16T07:22:07+00:00	2.3%	3.6%	0.7%	17.5%	11.8%
2026-09-16T08:07:30+00:00	2.3%	3.6%	0.7%	17.5%	11.8%
2026-09-16T08:52:39+00:00	2.3%	3.6%	0.7%	17.5%	11.8%
2026-09-16T09:37:49+00:00	2.3%	3.6%	0.7%	17.5%	11.8%
2026-09-16T10:22:59+00:00	2.3%	3.6%	0.7%	17.5%	11.8%
2026-09-16T11:08:06+00:00	2.3%	4.4%	0.7%	17.5%	11.8%
2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00	2.3%	4.4%	0.7%	17.5%	11.8%
2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00	2.3%	4.4%	0.7%	17.5%	11.8%
2026-09-16T13:23:26+00:00	1.4%	4.4%	0.7%	17.5%	11.8%
2026-09-16T14:09:45+00:00	1.4%	4.4%	0.7%	17.5%	11.8%
2026-09-16T14:54:54+00:00	1.4%	4.4%	0.7%	17.5%	11.8%
2026-09-16T15:40:07+00:00	1.4%	4.4%	0.7%	17.5%	11.8%
2026-09-16T16:25:13+00:00	1.4%	4.4%	0.7%	23.9%	7.5%
2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00	1.4%	4.4%	0.3%	23.9%	7.5%
2026-09-16T17:55:35+00:00	1.4%	4.4%	0.3%	23.9%	7.5%
2026-09-16T18:40:45+00:00	1.4%	4.4%	0.3%	23.9%	7.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	24%	93.7°F	8.2°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	8%	85.4°F	9.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	88.4°F	6.6°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	92.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	1%	87.3°F	5.5°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	86.6°F	4.8°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 100°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260923-TMAX-GE100
Opened Sep 16 · 07:22 UTC

Original listing: Triple digits in Nashville · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗