KBNA / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Sep 21 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

79%

61%

37%

28%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.6¢Risks 60.55u

ICONNO 39.4¢Risks 39.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.45u · ICON −39.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	—	—	—	63.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	59.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	—	—	—	69.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	9.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	57.6%	—	—	55.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	92.8%	—	—	72.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	95.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	70.5%	—	—	75.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	50.7%	—	—	85.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	48.6%	93.7%	29.2%	—	77.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	81.6%	86.5%	63.6%	—	72.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	39.4%	89.0%	11.4%	—	43.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	46.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	10.4%	47.6%	39.0%	—	35.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	6.0%	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	27.2%	76.8%	20.1%	—	34.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	31.1%	71.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	29.9%	79.2%	14.6%	—	40.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	20.9%	95.0%	—	—	24.9%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	11.5%	77.7%	23.7%	—	25.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	13.2%	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	36.6%	30.4%	49.0%	21.0%	—	49.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	24.1%	62.8%	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	23.5%	56.1%	21.2%	—	47.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	37.5%	32.6%	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	14.9%	56.5%	10.9%	14.9%	52.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	20.6%	61.1%	0.1%	—	54.5%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	16.8%	77.6%	8.1%	—	38.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	31.4%	35.9%	4.8%	—	71.7%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	51.2%	72.4%	1.7%	90.5%	62.3%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	33.7%	76.2%	5.3%	—	60.2%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	31.9%	76.0%	0.9%	87.4%	31.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	40.3%	76.8%	0.1%	—	12.4%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	14.6%	66.9%	0.1%	1.9%	0.9%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	12.0%	68.9%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.1%	62.4%	0.0%	3.1%	0.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	14.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	87.5°F	4.0°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	85.1°F	4.5°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	82.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	80.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-20 18:00	Pending
ICON	28%	79.2°F	3.9°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260923-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗