KBNA / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Sep 21 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

79%

61%

37%

28%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.6¢Risks 60.55u

ICONNO 39.4¢Risks 39.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.45u · ICON −39.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-19T15:13:01+00:00	29.6%	86.8%	61.4%	65.4%	41.6%
2026-09-19T15:58:14+00:00	29.6%	86.8%	61.4%	65.4%	41.6%
2026-09-19T16:43:19+00:00	29.6%	86.8%	61.4%	65.4%	21.1%
2026-09-19T17:28:24+00:00	29.6%	86.8%	61.4%	65.4%	21.1%
2026-09-19T18:13:29+00:00	29.6%	86.8%	61.4%	65.4%	21.1%
2026-09-19T18:58:38+00:00	29.6%	86.8%	61.4%	65.4%	21.1%
2026-09-19T19:43:43+00:00	41.5%	86.8%	61.4%	31.8%	21.1%
2026-09-19T20:28:48+00:00	41.5%	86.8%	61.4%	31.8%	21.1%
2026-09-19T21:13:52+00:00	41.5%	86.8%	61.4%	31.8%	21.1%
2026-09-19T21:58:57+00:00	41.5%	86.8%	61.4%	31.8%	21.1%
2026-09-19T22:44:03+00:00	41.5%	86.8%	61.4%	31.8%	21.1%
2026-09-19T23:29:08+00:00	41.5%	87.3%	61.4%	31.8%	21.2%
2026-09-20T00:14:14+00:00	41.5%	87.3%	61.4%	31.8%	21.2%
2026-09-20T00:59:23+00:00	41.5%	87.3%	61.4%	31.8%	21.2%
2026-09-20T01:44:30+00:00	61.8%	87.3%	61.4%	31.8%	21.2%
2026-09-20T02:29:37+00:00	61.8%	87.3%	61.4%	31.8%	21.2%
2026-09-20T15:18:48+00:00	69.1%	93.0%	61.4%	76.1%	34.0%
2026-09-20T16:04:07+00:00	69.1%	93.0%	61.4%	76.1%	34.0%
2026-09-20T16:49:12+00:00	69.1%	93.0%	61.4%	76.1%	27.7%
2026-09-20T17:34:18+00:00	69.1%	93.0%	61.4%	76.1%	27.7%
2026-09-20T18:19:23+00:00	69.1%	93.0%	61.4%	76.1%	27.7%
2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00	69.1%	93.0%	61.4%	76.1%	27.7%
2026-09-20T19:49:36+00:00	40.1%	93.0%	61.4%	76.1%	27.7%
2026-09-20T20:34:41+00:00	40.1%	93.0%	61.4%	76.1%	27.7%
2026-09-20T21:19:46+00:00	40.1%	93.0%	61.4%	76.1%	27.7%
2026-09-20T22:04:50+00:00	40.1%	93.0%	61.4%	76.1%	27.7%
2026-09-20T22:49:58+00:00	40.1%	93.0%	61.4%	78.7%	27.7%
2026-09-20T23:35:04+00:00	40.1%	93.4%	61.4%	78.7%	27.7%
2026-09-21T00:20:13+00:00	40.1%	93.4%	61.4%	78.7%	27.7%
2026-09-21T01:05:23+00:00	40.1%	93.4%	61.4%	78.7%	27.7%
2026-09-21T01:50:29+00:00	36.7%	93.4%	61.4%	78.7%	27.7%
2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00	36.7%	93.4%	61.4%	78.7%	27.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	87.5°F	4.0°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	79%	85.1°F	4.5°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	82.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	80.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-20 18:00	Pending
ICON	28%	79.2°F	3.9°F	2026-09-20 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260923-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗