KBNA / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Sep 18 · 14:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

20%

12%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 25.4¢Risks 25.45u

HRESNO 74.6¢Risks 74.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +74.55u · HRES −74.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	61.9%	—	—	—	—	36.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	29.3%	—	—	27.8%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	55.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	75.1%	—	—	41.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	39.1%	—	—	45.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	95.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	20.3%	—	—	58.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	18.0%	74.3%	7.7%	—	45.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	49.3%	57.3%	28.5%	—	37.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	11.0%	60.6%	1.5%	—	12.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	14.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	1.2%	14.5%	10.0%	—	8.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.5%	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	4.9%	37.7%	3.0%	—	7.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.9%	30.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	5.2%	38.8%	1.6%	—	9.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.6%	69.8%	—	—	3.6%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.9%	34.7%	3.0%	—	3.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	1.1%	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	4.2%	10.7%	2.1%	—	10.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	2.5%	17.7%	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.2%	12.8%	1.8%	—	9.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	5.0%	3.8%	—	—	8.8%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	11.4%	0.5%	0.8%	9.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.3%	12.9%	0.0%	—	9.7%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	24.2%	0.2%	—	4.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.3%	3.1%	0.1%	—	17.5%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.3%	16.6%	0.0%	40.1%	10.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.1%	18.2%	0.1%	—	8.7%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.6%	16.5%	0.0%	29.5%	1.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.3%	15.6%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	8.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	8.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	4.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	87.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-18 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	86.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	84.0°F	7.6°F	2026-09-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	82.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	80.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	6%	77.5°F	5.9°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	76.8°F	5.8°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260923-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 16 · 07:22 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗