KBNA / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 22 · 22:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

31%

12%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 15.8¢Risks 15.75u

ICONNO 84.2¢Risks 84.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +84.25u · ICON −84.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	11.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	26.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	16.2%	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	6.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	58.1%	—	—	24.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	65.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	22.1%	—	—	27.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	87.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	9.0%	—	—	38.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	7.4%	54.9%	2.5%	—	25.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	28.5%	35.7%	13.2%	—	18.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	3.6%	38.0%	0.3%	—	4.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.2%	4.9%	3.0%	—	2.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	20.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.1%	17.3%	0.6%	—	1.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.1%	17.2%	0.2%	—	2.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	43.7%	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	13.9%	0.5%	—	0.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.7%	2.4%	0.3%	—	2.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.3%	4.7%	—	—	5.7%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	2.8%	0.2%	—	1.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	0.5%	—	—	1.6%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	2.1%	0.0%	0.1%	1.6%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	2.4%	0.0%	—	1.6%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	5.7%	0.0%	—	0.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%	—	3.3%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	2.8%	0.0%	11.8%	1.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	3.0%	0.0%	—	1.0%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	2.4%	0.0%	6.1%	0.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	2.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	31%	88.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	85.1°F	3.8°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	82.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	84.0°F	3.6°F	2026-09-22 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-22 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	77.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	78.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260923-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 16 · 07:22 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 90°F+ · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗