KBNA / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Sep 24 · 06:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

44%

36%

15%

13%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 39.2¢Risks 39.25u

ICONNO 60.7¢Risks 60.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +60.75u · ICON −60.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	—	—	—	63.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	—	—	—	60.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	92.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	71.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	70.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	83.6%	—	—	65.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	57.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	50.7%	55.4%	—	—	56.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	22.4%	78.1%	6.9%	—	28.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	2.1%	23.7%	39.9%	—	26.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	32.3%	46.2%	27.0%	—	25.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	39.0%	47.6%	2.3%	—	30.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	8.2%	58.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	9.0%	53.3%	35.3%	—	25.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	15.2%	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	19.0%	13.6%	34.6%	—	37.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	30.2%	33.4%	—	—	45.5%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	18.4%	52.8%	29.7%	—	44.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	43.4%	74.7%	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	51.9%	67.8%	21.0%	—	46.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	59.9%	66.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	35.9%	78.8%	25.9%	—	45.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	57.4%	82.4%	—	—	67.4%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	60.8%	71.8%	25.5%	76.2%	59.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	59.0%	82.5%	0.1%	—	53.4%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	65.9%	83.2%	26.0%	74.9%	39.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	50.0%	88.0%	22.5%	—	37.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	37.7%	87.6%	35.4%	19.1%	17.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	36.1%	83.4%	18.2%	—	12.2%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	36.8%	85.1%	24.0%	42.0%	13.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	23.2%	61.0%	11.8%	—	9.8%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	28.0%	51.4%	13.0%	11.5%	6.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	42.5%	67.5%	19.2%	—	13.6%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	39.1%	77.4%	23.8%	5.7%	14.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	37.0%	66.1%	22.8%	—	20.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	79%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	82.6°F	2.8°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-24 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	81.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	80.2°F	3.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	77.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
ICON	13%	77.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260924-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 18 · 15:07 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗