KBNA / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Sep 24 · 06:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

44%

36%

15%

13%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 39.2¢Risks 39.25u

ICONNO 60.7¢Risks 60.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +60.75u · ICON −60.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T06:42:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-18T15:07:09+00:00	17.4%	62.2%	31.5%	19.5%	12.3%
2026-09-18T15:52:25+00:00	17.4%	62.2%	31.5%	19.5%	12.3%
2026-09-18T16:37:30+00:00	17.4%	62.2%	31.5%	19.5%	54.7%
2026-09-18T17:22:36+00:00	17.4%	62.2%	31.5%	19.5%	54.7%
2026-09-18T18:07:41+00:00	17.4%	62.2%	31.5%	19.5%	54.7%
2026-09-18T18:52:50+00:00	17.4%	62.2%	31.5%	19.5%	54.7%
2026-09-18T19:37:55+00:00	16.0%	62.2%	31.5%	19.5%	54.7%
2026-09-18T20:23:00+00:00	16.0%	62.2%	31.5%	19.5%	54.7%
2026-09-18T21:08:04+00:00	16.0%	62.2%	31.5%	19.5%	54.7%
2026-09-18T21:53:09+00:00	16.0%	62.2%	31.5%	19.5%	54.7%
2026-09-18T22:38:15+00:00	16.0%	62.2%	31.5%	39.3%	54.7%
2026-09-18T23:23:20+00:00	16.0%	63.2%	31.5%	39.3%	54.7%
2026-09-19T00:08:25+00:00	16.0%	63.2%	31.5%	39.3%	54.7%
2026-09-19T00:53:32+00:00	16.0%	63.2%	31.5%	39.3%	54.7%
2026-09-19T01:38:37+00:00	16.5%	63.2%	31.5%	39.3%	54.7%
2026-09-19T02:23:43+00:00	16.5%	63.2%	31.5%	39.3%	54.7%
2026-09-19T03:08:55+00:00	16.5%	63.2%	31.5%	39.3%	54.7%
2026-09-19T03:54:13+00:00	16.5%	63.2%	31.5%	39.3%	54.7%
2026-09-19T04:39:19+00:00	16.5%	63.2%	31.5%	39.3%	56.1%
2026-09-19T05:24:24+00:00	16.5%	63.2%	31.5%	39.3%	56.1%
2026-09-19T06:09:28+00:00	16.5%	63.2%	31.5%	39.3%	56.1%
2026-09-19T06:54:37+00:00	16.5%	63.2%	31.5%	39.3%	56.1%
2026-09-19T07:39:53+00:00	26.6%	63.2%	31.5%	58.1%	56.1%
2026-09-19T08:25:24+00:00	26.6%	63.2%	31.5%	58.1%	56.1%
2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00	26.6%	63.2%	31.5%	58.1%	56.1%
2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00	26.6%	63.2%	31.5%	58.1%	56.1%
2026-09-19T10:40:46+00:00	26.6%	63.2%	31.5%	58.1%	56.1%
2026-09-19T11:25:54+00:00	26.6%	70.9%	31.5%	58.1%	56.1%
2026-09-19T12:11:04+00:00	26.6%	70.9%	31.5%	58.1%	56.1%
2026-09-19T12:56:08+00:00	26.6%	70.9%	31.5%	58.1%	56.1%
2026-09-19T13:41:14+00:00	21.0%	70.9%	31.5%	58.1%	56.1%
2026-09-19T14:27:50+00:00	21.0%	70.9%	31.5%	58.2%	56.1%
2026-09-19T15:13:01+00:00	21.0%	71.4%	31.5%	58.2%	56.1%
2026-09-19T15:58:14+00:00	21.0%	71.4%	31.5%	58.2%	56.1%
2026-09-19T16:43:19+00:00	21.0%	71.4%	31.5%	58.2%	24.3%
2026-09-19T17:28:24+00:00	21.0%	71.4%	31.5%	58.2%	24.3%
2026-09-19T18:13:29+00:00	21.0%	71.4%	31.5%	58.2%	24.3%
2026-09-19T18:58:38+00:00	21.0%	71.4%	31.5%	58.2%	24.3%
2026-09-19T19:43:43+00:00	25.2%	71.4%	31.5%	51.4%	24.3%
2026-09-19T20:28:48+00:00	25.2%	71.4%	31.5%	51.4%	24.3%
2026-09-19T21:13:52+00:00	25.2%	71.4%	31.5%	51.4%	24.3%
2026-09-19T21:58:57+00:00	25.2%	71.4%	31.5%	51.4%	24.3%
2026-09-19T22:44:03+00:00	25.2%	71.4%	31.5%	51.4%	24.3%
2026-09-19T23:29:08+00:00	25.2%	70.9%	31.5%	51.4%	24.3%
2026-09-20T00:14:14+00:00	25.2%	70.9%	31.5%	51.4%	24.3%
2026-09-20T00:59:23+00:00	25.2%	70.9%	31.5%	51.4%	24.3%
2026-09-20T01:44:30+00:00	31.4%	70.9%	31.5%	51.4%	24.3%
2026-09-20T02:29:37+00:00	31.4%	70.9%	31.5%	51.4%	24.3%
2026-09-20T15:18:48+00:00	36.6%	79.0%	31.6%	79.7%	29.2%
2026-09-20T16:04:07+00:00	36.6%	79.0%	31.6%	79.7%	29.2%
2026-09-20T16:49:12+00:00	36.6%	79.0%	31.6%	79.7%	29.9%
2026-09-20T17:34:18+00:00	36.6%	79.0%	31.6%	79.7%	29.9%
2026-09-20T18:19:23+00:00	36.6%	79.0%	31.6%	79.7%	29.9%
2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00	36.6%	79.0%	31.6%	79.7%	29.9%
2026-09-20T19:49:36+00:00	21.4%	79.0%	31.6%	79.7%	29.9%
2026-09-20T20:34:41+00:00	21.4%	79.0%	31.6%	79.7%	29.9%
2026-09-20T21:19:46+00:00	21.4%	79.0%	31.6%	79.7%	29.9%
2026-09-20T22:04:50+00:00	21.4%	79.0%	31.6%	79.7%	29.9%
2026-09-20T22:49:58+00:00	21.4%	79.0%	31.6%	79.2%	29.9%
2026-09-20T23:35:04+00:00	21.4%	79.7%	31.6%	79.2%	29.9%
2026-09-21T00:20:13+00:00	21.4%	79.7%	31.6%	79.2%	29.9%
2026-09-21T01:05:23+00:00	21.4%	79.7%	31.6%	79.2%	29.9%
2026-09-21T01:50:29+00:00	23.9%	79.7%	31.6%	79.2%	29.9%
2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00	23.9%	79.7%	31.6%	79.2%	29.9%
2026-09-21T03:20:45+00:00	23.9%	79.7%	31.6%	79.2%	29.9%
2026-09-21T04:06:01+00:00	23.9%	79.7%	31.6%	79.2%	29.9%
2026-09-21T04:51:09+00:00	23.9%	79.7%	31.6%	79.2%	57.1%
2026-09-21T05:36:17+00:00	23.9%	79.7%	31.6%	79.2%	57.1%
2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00	23.9%	79.7%	31.6%	79.2%	57.1%
2026-09-21T07:06:30+00:00	23.9%	79.7%	31.6%	79.2%	57.1%
2026-09-21T07:51:35+00:00	15.3%	79.7%	31.6%	79.2%	57.1%
2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00	15.3%	79.7%	31.6%	79.2%	57.1%
2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00	15.3%	79.7%	31.6%	79.2%	57.1%
2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00	15.3%	79.7%	31.6%	79.2%	57.1%
2026-09-21T10:52:09+00:00	15.3%	79.7%	31.6%	79.3%	57.1%
2026-09-21T11:37:52+00:00	15.3%	89.9%	31.6%	79.3%	57.1%
2026-09-21T12:23:01+00:00	15.3%	89.9%	31.6%	79.3%	57.1%
2026-09-21T13:08:06+00:00	15.3%	89.9%	31.6%	79.3%	57.1%
2026-09-21T13:53:12+00:00	19.3%	89.9%	31.7%	79.3%	57.1%
2026-09-21T14:40:18+00:00	19.3%	89.9%	31.7%	79.3%	57.1%
2026-09-21T15:25:30+00:00	19.3%	89.9%	31.7%	79.3%	57.1%
2026-09-21T16:10:46+00:00	19.3%	89.9%	31.7%	79.3%	57.1%
2026-09-21T16:55:51+00:00	19.3%	89.9%	31.7%	79.3%	40.9%
2026-09-21T17:40:57+00:00	19.3%	89.9%	31.7%	79.3%	40.9%
2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00	19.3%	89.9%	31.7%	79.3%	40.9%
2026-09-21T19:11:11+00:00	19.3%	89.9%	31.7%	79.3%	40.9%
2026-09-21T19:56:19+00:00	13.2%	89.9%	31.7%	73.2%	40.9%
2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00	13.2%	89.9%	31.7%	73.2%	40.9%
2026-09-21T21:26:36+00:00	13.2%	89.9%	31.7%	73.2%	40.9%
2026-09-21T22:11:42+00:00	13.2%	89.9%	31.7%	73.2%	40.9%
2026-09-21T22:56:47+00:00	13.2%	90.5%	31.7%	73.2%	40.9%
2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00	13.2%	90.5%	31.7%	73.2%	40.9%
2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00	13.2%	90.5%	31.7%	73.2%	40.9%
2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00	13.2%	90.5%	31.7%	73.2%	40.9%
2026-09-22T01:57:12+00:00	18.1%	90.5%	31.7%	73.2%	40.9%
2026-09-24T02:56:27+00:00	15.1%	65.2%	41.8%	36.4%	25.7%
2026-09-24T03:41:53+00:00	15.1%	65.2%	41.8%	36.4%	25.7%
2026-09-24T04:26:59+00:00	15.1%	65.2%	41.8%	36.4%	13.3%
2026-09-24T05:12:05+00:00	15.1%	65.2%	44.2%	36.4%	13.3%
2026-09-24T05:57:14+00:00	15.1%	65.2%	44.2%	36.4%	13.3%
2026-09-24T06:42:25+00:00	15.1%	65.2%	44.2%	36.4%	13.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	79%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	82.6°F	2.8°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-24 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	81.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	80.2°F	3.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	77.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
ICON	13%	77.7°F	3.4°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260924-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 18 · 15:07 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗