KBNA / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Sep 24 · 02:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

21%

19%

11%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 21.9¢Risks 21.90u

AIFSNO 78.1¢Risks 78.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +78.10u · AIFS −78.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	32.9%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	40.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	51.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	87.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	74.3%	—	—	52.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	37.4%	41.9%	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	13.4%	66.4%	3.3%	—	17.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	0.8%	14.0%	26.6%	—	16.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	31.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	20.0%	31.6%	16.0%	—	15.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	24.8%	32.3%	0.8%	—	18.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	3.6%	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	3.9%	36.9%	21.3%	—	14.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	7.2%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	9.4%	6.2%	20.2%	—	22.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	16.6%	19.0%	—	—	28.7%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	8.6%	34.7%	16.0%	—	27.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	26.1%	57.5%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	33.0%	49.0%	9.8%	—	27.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	40.1%	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	19.0%	61.2%	12.3%	—	26.8%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	36.5%	65.5%	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	39.2%	51.1%	11.4%	56.5%	38.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	36.7%	64.3%	0.0%	—	31.5%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	43.0%	64.8%	11.0%	53.5%	19.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	27.3%	71.7%	8.7%	—	17.5%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	17.4%	70.2%	15.9%	6.7%	5.9%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	15.8%	62.7%	6.0%	—	3.5%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	15.7%	64.4%	8.4%	19.1%	3.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.6%	33.8%	3.0%	—	2.3%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	9.5%	24.5%	3.2%	2.7%	1.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	17.2%	38.1%	5.1%	—	3.2%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	14.2%	48.4%	6.6%	0.9%	3.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	12.3%	33.9%	5.8%	—	4.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-23 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	82.6°F	2.8°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	80.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	80.2°F	3.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
ICON	11%	79.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	77.3°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260924-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 20 · 03:14 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 84°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗