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KBNA / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST9%Sep 23 · 14:09 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
15%
WN2
7%
HRES
5%
ICON
4%
AIFS
2%
Consensus
9%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 8.8¢Risks 4.42u
VS
AIFSNO 91.1¢Risks 45.57u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.57u · AIFS −45.57u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.2% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.5% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.9% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.9% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.9% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.1% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.2% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 77.2% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.9% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.8% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.4% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.9% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.8% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.6% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.9% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.1% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.7% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.4% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 25.4% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.2% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.0% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.0% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.0% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.8% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.2% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 22.6% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 19.0% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 20.6% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.3% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 22.4% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.4% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.9% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.9% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.1% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.4% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 39.4% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 79.4% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 45.5% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 62.8% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 32.1% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.4% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 35.8% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 52.8% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.3% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.4% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.4% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.5% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.6% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.5% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.0% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.5% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.9% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.2% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.6% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 38.8% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.4% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.2% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 40.8% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 44.7% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.1% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 42.2% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 41.9% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 48.8% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 46.3% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 37.3% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 38.1% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.2% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.8% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.4% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.3% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.7% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.4% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 16.1% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 8.4% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 11.2% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.1% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.3% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.8% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.7% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.0% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.5% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.5% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.2% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.4% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.0% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.9% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.1% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.8% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 35.1% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 31.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 1.7% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 6.1% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.4% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.4% · 2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 40.0% · 2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.0% · 2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.0% · 2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 40.5% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.9% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.9% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 41.5% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 42.0% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.0% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.5% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 40.1% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.3% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 47.5% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 39.7% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.0% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.9% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.7% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.8% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.7% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.3% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.5% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.4% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.2% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.1% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.8% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.8% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.6% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.2% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:0009-09 06:0009-17 00:0009-24 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:006.8%—————
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:000.0%————4.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:0011.8%—————
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:0016.2%————40.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:0016.9%—————
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:007.5%————34.0%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:000.7%—————
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:0059.5%————27.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:0045.2%—————
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:0068.9%————40.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:0048.9%—————
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:0027.9%————36.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:0051.1%—————
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:0011.0%————27.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:0045.2%—————
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:0077.2%————41.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:0014.0%—————
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:0023.9%————42.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:0047.8%—————
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:0017.4%————30.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:0058.9%—————
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:003.9%————22.5%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:001.6%—————
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:0021.8%————40.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:0024.6%—39.4%———
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:0050.0%————36.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:0046.9%—79.4%———
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:0043.1%————47.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:009.2%—45.5%———
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:0020.7%—62.8%——39.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:009.4%—32.1%———
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:003.0%25.4%29.4%——30.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:000.3%—35.8%———
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:000.6%7.2%52.8%1.4%—9.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:000.7%—8.3%———
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:001.3%0.3%7.4%16.1%—8.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:000.6%—19.4%———
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:000.4%11.0%19.5%8.4%—7.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:000.4%—11.6%———
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:001.1%14.0%19.5%0.3%—9.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:000.5%1.4%27.0%———
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:000.7%1.5%22.5%11.2%—6.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:001.0%3.0%3.9%———
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:001.6%3.9%2.4%10.1%—11.3%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:001.2%7.8%9.2%——15.5%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:000.3%3.4%19.6%7.3%—14.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:000.3%13.2%38.8%——0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:000.1%17.7%30.4%3.8%—14.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:000.1%22.6%28.2%———
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:000.0%8.2%40.8%4.7%—12.8%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:000.1%19.0%44.7%——27.1%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:000.0%20.6%30.1%4.0%35.1%19.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:000.0%18.3%42.2%0.0%—14.8%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:000.0%22.4%41.9%3.5%31.0%7.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:000.0%11.4%48.8%2.5%—6.2%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:000.0%5.9%46.3%5.2%1.7%1.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:000.0%4.9%37.3%1.4%—0.7%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:000.0%4.6%38.1%2.0%6.1%0.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:000.0%1.7%13.2%0.5%—0.4%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:000.0%2.1%7.8%0.5%0.4%0.2%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:000.0%4.4%14.4%0.9%—0.4%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:000.0%3.1%20.3%1.1%0.1%0.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:000.0%2.3%10.7%0.8%—0.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast56%86.0°F3.1°F2026-09-23 02:00Pending
National Blend32%84.0°F3.3°F2026-09-23 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble15%82.6°F2.8°F2026-09-23 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 27%80.5°F3.4°F2026-09-23 00:00Pending
IFS HRES5%79.2°F3.8°F2026-09-23 00:00Pending
ICON4%79.2°F3.5°F2026-09-23 00:00Pending
AIFS Single2%77.5°F4.1°F2026-09-23 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260924-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 18 · 03:02 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 86°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗