KBNA / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST9%Sep 23 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 8.8¢Risks 4.42u

AIFSNO 91.1¢Risks 45.57u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.57u · AIFS −45.57u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T14:09:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-18T03:02:40+00:00	4.8%	64.1%	9.3%	10.1%	33.4%
2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:00	4.8%	64.1%	9.3%	10.1%	33.4%
2026-09-18T04:33:08+00:00	4.8%	64.1%	9.3%	10.1%	4.0%
2026-09-18T05:18:13+00:00	4.8%	64.1%	9.3%	10.1%	4.0%
2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:00	4.8%	64.1%	9.3%	10.1%	4.0%
2026-09-18T06:48:26+00:00	4.8%	64.1%	9.3%	10.1%	4.0%
2026-09-18T07:33:40+00:00	7.4%	64.1%	9.3%	7.2%	4.0%
2026-09-18T08:19:07+00:00	7.4%	64.1%	9.3%	7.2%	4.0%
2026-09-18T09:04:14+00:00	7.4%	64.1%	9.3%	7.2%	4.0%
2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:00	7.4%	64.1%	9.3%	7.2%	4.0%
2026-09-18T10:34:35+00:00	7.4%	64.1%	9.3%	7.2%	4.0%
2026-09-18T11:20:03+00:00	7.4%	23.4%	9.3%	7.2%	4.0%
2026-09-18T12:05:14+00:00	7.4%	23.4%	9.3%	7.2%	4.0%
2026-09-18T12:50:19+00:00	7.4%	23.4%	9.3%	7.2%	4.0%
2026-09-18T13:35:25+00:00	4.6%	23.4%	9.3%	7.2%	4.0%
2026-09-18T14:21:55+00:00	4.6%	23.4%	9.3%	7.1%	4.1%
2026-09-23T02:49:17+00:00	3.7%	57.9%	7.4%	42.3%	18.9%
2026-09-23T03:34:35+00:00	3.7%	57.9%	7.4%	42.3%	18.9%
2026-09-23T04:19:44+00:00	3.7%	57.9%	7.4%	42.3%	18.9%
2026-09-23T05:04:52+00:00	3.7%	57.9%	7.4%	27.2%	3.5%
2026-09-23T05:50:04+00:00	3.7%	57.9%	7.4%	27.2%	3.5%
2026-09-23T06:35:09+00:00	3.7%	57.9%	7.4%	27.2%	3.5%
2026-09-23T07:20:18+00:00	3.7%	57.9%	7.4%	27.2%	3.5%
2026-09-23T08:05:39+00:00	2.5%	57.9%	7.4%	4.6%	3.5%
2026-09-23T08:51:11+00:00	2.5%	57.9%	7.4%	4.6%	3.5%
2026-09-23T09:36:16+00:00	2.5%	57.9%	7.4%	4.6%	3.5%
2026-09-23T10:21:21+00:00	2.5%	57.9%	7.4%	4.6%	3.5%
2026-09-23T11:06:27+00:00	2.5%	15.1%	7.1%	4.6%	3.5%
2026-09-23T11:51:39+00:00	2.5%	15.1%	7.1%	4.6%	3.5%
2026-09-23T12:36:44+00:00	2.5%	15.1%	7.1%	4.6%	3.5%
2026-09-23T13:21:49+00:00	2.5%	15.1%	7.1%	4.6%	3.5%
2026-09-23T14:09:06+00:00	2.5%	15.2%	7.1%	4.6%	3.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	86.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-23 02:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	84.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	82.6°F	2.8°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	80.5°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	79.2°F	3.8°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
ICON	4%	79.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	77.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260924-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 18 · 03:02 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 86°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗