KBNA / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Sep 19 · 02:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

65%

64%

34%

30%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 49.2¢Risks 49.15u

WN2NO 50.8¢Risks 50.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +50.85u · WN2 −50.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	—	58.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	70.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	62.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	—	—	—	73.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	64.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	51.3%	—	—	55.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	48.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	44.2%	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	0.8%	24.9%	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	46.5%	43.7%	21.9%	—	29.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	52.9%	61.6%	10.0%	—	37.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	82.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	35.8%	71.1%	30.3%	—	35.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	53.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	36.7%	46.0%	39.0%	—	45.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	14.4%	42.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	24.5%	48.3%	39.3%	—	49.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	26.7%	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	51.7%	75.9%	26.9%	—	50.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	73.6%	90.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	51.8%	89.4%	50.0%	—	49.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	47.2%	77.6%	—	—	60.3%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	66.1%	68.7%	34.8%	35.7%	55.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	74.3%	80.3%	—	—	53.0%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	74.9%	84.9%	37.8%	—	44.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	41.6%	74.7%	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	21.3%	82.4%	35.1%	—	22.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	19.8%	79.4%	0.1%	—	19.8%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	14.0%	76.7%	28.9%	41.9%	20.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	19.1%	83.3%	26.3%	—	11.4%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	15.1%	69.2%	28.7%	2.5%	10.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	9.2%	66.3%	31.4%	—	12.8%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	6.1%	74.9%	31.9%	1.2%	16.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	9.2%	62.3%	28.8%	—	13.9%
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	12.2%	65.5%	26.8%	10.2%	20.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	16.2%	63.3%	26.0%	—	23.6%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	11.7%	63.9%	30.3%	8.3%	16.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	24.1%	58.2%	40.2%	—	28.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	68%	82.3°F	3.9°F	2026-09-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	82.9°F	6.2°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	64%	84.1°F	9.8°F	2026-09-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	81.0°F	7.6°F	2026-09-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	78.2°F	5.5°F	2026-09-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	77.9°F	5.1°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260925-TMAX-GE81
Opened Sep 18 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 81°F · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗