KBNA / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Sep 25 · 17:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

38%

23%

15%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 28.1¢Risks 28.05u

ICONNO 72.0¢Risks 71.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +71.95u · ICON −71.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T17:23:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-19T03:08:55+00:00	27.6%	58.1%	24.0%	58.9%	60.5%
2026-09-19T03:54:13+00:00	27.6%	58.1%	24.0%	58.9%	60.5%
2026-09-19T04:39:19+00:00	27.6%	58.1%	24.0%	58.9%	64.8%
2026-09-19T05:24:24+00:00	27.6%	58.1%	24.0%	58.9%	64.8%
2026-09-19T06:09:28+00:00	27.6%	58.1%	24.0%	58.9%	64.8%
2026-09-19T06:54:37+00:00	27.6%	58.1%	24.0%	58.9%	64.8%
2026-09-19T07:39:53+00:00	38.9%	58.1%	24.0%	65.3%	64.8%
2026-09-19T08:25:24+00:00	38.9%	58.1%	24.0%	65.3%	64.8%
2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00	38.9%	58.1%	24.0%	65.3%	64.8%
2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00	38.9%	58.1%	24.0%	65.3%	64.8%
2026-09-19T10:40:46+00:00	38.9%	58.1%	24.0%	65.3%	64.8%
2026-09-19T11:25:54+00:00	38.9%	61.2%	24.0%	65.3%	64.8%
2026-09-19T12:11:04+00:00	38.9%	61.2%	24.0%	65.3%	64.8%
2026-09-19T12:56:08+00:00	38.9%	61.2%	24.0%	65.3%	64.8%
2026-09-19T13:41:14+00:00	35.4%	61.2%	24.0%	65.3%	64.8%
2026-09-19T14:27:50+00:00	35.3%	61.2%	24.1%	65.3%	64.8%
2026-09-19T15:13:01+00:00	35.3%	61.2%	24.1%	65.3%	64.8%
2026-09-19T15:58:14+00:00	35.3%	61.2%	24.1%	65.3%	64.8%
2026-09-19T16:43:19+00:00	35.3%	61.2%	24.1%	65.3%	51.7%
2026-09-19T17:28:24+00:00	35.3%	61.2%	24.1%	65.3%	51.7%
2026-09-19T18:13:29+00:00	35.3%	61.2%	24.1%	65.3%	51.7%
2026-09-19T18:58:38+00:00	35.3%	61.2%	24.1%	65.3%	51.7%
2026-09-19T19:43:43+00:00	41.8%	61.2%	24.1%	38.7%	51.7%
2026-09-19T20:28:48+00:00	41.8%	61.2%	24.1%	38.7%	51.7%
2026-09-19T21:13:52+00:00	41.8%	61.2%	24.1%	38.7%	51.7%
2026-09-19T21:58:57+00:00	41.8%	61.2%	24.1%	38.7%	51.7%
2026-09-19T22:44:03+00:00	41.8%	61.2%	24.1%	38.7%	51.7%
2026-09-19T23:29:08+00:00	41.8%	62.2%	24.1%	38.7%	51.7%
2026-09-20T00:14:14+00:00	41.8%	62.2%	24.1%	38.7%	51.7%
2026-09-20T00:59:23+00:00	41.8%	62.2%	24.1%	38.7%	51.7%
2026-09-20T01:44:30+00:00	51.5%	62.2%	24.1%	38.7%	51.7%
2026-09-20T02:29:37+00:00	51.5%	62.2%	24.1%	38.7%	51.7%
2026-09-20T15:18:48+00:00	54.0%	77.5%	24.1%	73.7%	47.3%
2026-09-20T16:04:07+00:00	54.0%	77.5%	24.1%	73.7%	47.3%
2026-09-20T16:49:12+00:00	54.0%	77.5%	24.1%	73.7%	36.7%
2026-09-20T17:34:18+00:00	54.0%	77.5%	24.1%	73.7%	36.7%
2026-09-20T18:19:23+00:00	54.0%	77.5%	24.1%	73.7%	36.7%
2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00	54.0%	77.5%	24.1%	73.7%	36.7%
2026-09-20T19:49:36+00:00	45.2%	77.5%	24.1%	73.7%	36.7%
2026-09-20T20:34:41+00:00	45.2%	77.5%	24.1%	73.7%	36.7%
2026-09-20T21:19:46+00:00	45.2%	77.5%	24.1%	73.7%	36.7%
2026-09-20T22:04:50+00:00	45.2%	77.5%	24.1%	73.7%	36.7%
2026-09-20T22:49:58+00:00	45.2%	77.5%	24.1%	65.9%	36.7%
2026-09-20T23:35:04+00:00	45.2%	77.7%	24.1%	65.9%	36.7%
2026-09-21T00:20:13+00:00	45.2%	77.7%	24.1%	65.9%	36.7%
2026-09-21T01:05:23+00:00	45.2%	77.7%	24.1%	65.9%	36.7%
2026-09-21T01:50:29+00:00	49.2%	77.7%	24.1%	65.9%	36.7%
2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00	49.2%	77.7%	24.1%	65.9%	36.7%
2026-09-21T03:20:45+00:00	49.2%	77.7%	24.1%	65.9%	36.7%
2026-09-21T04:06:01+00:00	49.2%	77.7%	24.1%	65.9%	36.7%
2026-09-21T04:51:09+00:00	49.2%	77.7%	24.1%	65.9%	55.0%
2026-09-21T05:36:17+00:00	49.2%	77.7%	24.1%	65.9%	55.0%
2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00	49.2%	77.7%	24.1%	65.9%	55.0%
2026-09-21T07:06:30+00:00	49.2%	77.7%	24.1%	65.9%	55.0%
2026-09-21T07:51:35+00:00	41.5%	77.7%	24.1%	65.9%	55.0%
2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00	41.5%	77.7%	24.1%	65.9%	55.0%
2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00	41.5%	77.7%	24.1%	65.9%	55.0%
2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00	41.5%	77.7%	24.1%	65.9%	55.0%
2026-09-21T10:52:09+00:00	41.5%	77.7%	24.1%	65.4%	55.0%
2026-09-21T11:37:52+00:00	41.5%	85.6%	24.1%	65.4%	55.0%
2026-09-21T12:23:01+00:00	41.5%	85.6%	24.1%	65.4%	55.0%
2026-09-21T13:08:06+00:00	41.5%	85.6%	24.1%	65.4%	55.0%
2026-09-21T13:53:12+00:00	46.6%	85.6%	24.2%	65.4%	55.0%
2026-09-21T14:40:18+00:00	46.6%	85.6%	24.2%	65.4%	55.0%
2026-09-21T15:25:30+00:00	46.6%	85.6%	24.2%	65.4%	55.0%
2026-09-21T16:10:46+00:00	46.6%	85.6%	24.2%	65.4%	55.0%
2026-09-21T16:55:51+00:00	46.6%	85.6%	24.2%	65.4%	55.0%
2026-09-21T17:40:57+00:00	46.6%	85.6%	24.2%	65.4%	55.0%
2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00	46.6%	85.6%	24.2%	65.4%	55.0%
2026-09-21T19:11:11+00:00	46.6%	85.6%	24.2%	65.4%	55.0%
2026-09-21T19:56:19+00:00	42.3%	85.6%	24.2%	69.7%	55.0%
2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00	42.3%	85.6%	24.2%	69.7%	55.0%
2026-09-21T21:26:36+00:00	42.3%	85.6%	24.2%	69.7%	55.0%
2026-09-21T22:11:42+00:00	42.3%	85.6%	24.2%	69.7%	55.0%
2026-09-21T22:56:47+00:00	42.3%	86.3%	24.2%	69.7%	55.0%
2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00	42.3%	86.3%	24.2%	69.7%	55.0%
2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00	42.3%	86.3%	24.2%	69.7%	55.0%
2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00	42.3%	86.3%	24.2%	69.7%	55.0%
2026-09-22T01:57:12+00:00	44.9%	86.3%	24.2%	69.7%	55.0%
2026-09-24T02:56:27+00:00	44.3%	66.2%	25.7%	28.0%	7.4%
2026-09-24T03:41:53+00:00	44.3%	66.2%	25.7%	28.0%	7.4%
2026-09-24T04:26:59+00:00	44.3%	66.2%	25.7%	28.0%	5.6%
2026-09-24T05:12:05+00:00	44.3%	66.2%	26.7%	28.0%	5.6%
2026-09-24T05:57:14+00:00	44.3%	66.2%	26.7%	28.0%	5.6%
2026-09-24T06:42:25+00:00	44.3%	66.2%	26.7%	28.0%	5.6%
2026-09-24T07:27:46+00:00	42.2%	66.2%	26.7%	14.3%	5.6%
2026-09-24T08:13:25+00:00	42.2%	66.2%	26.7%	14.3%	5.6%
2026-09-24T08:58:36+00:00	42.2%	66.2%	26.7%	14.3%	5.6%
2026-09-24T09:43:41+00:00	42.2%	66.2%	26.7%	14.3%	5.6%
2026-09-24T10:28:46+00:00	42.2%	66.2%	26.7%	14.3%	5.6%
2026-09-24T11:13:52+00:00	42.2%	50.0%	21.4%	14.3%	5.6%
2026-09-24T11:58:57+00:00	42.2%	50.0%	21.4%	14.3%	5.6%
2026-09-24T12:44:02+00:00	42.2%	50.0%	21.4%	14.3%	5.6%
2026-09-24T13:29:17+00:00	51.0%	50.0%	21.4%	14.3%	5.6%
2026-09-24T14:16:41+00:00	51.0%	50.0%	21.4%	14.3%	5.6%
2026-09-24T15:01:51+00:00	51.0%	45.3%	21.4%	14.3%	5.6%
2026-09-24T15:47:18+00:00	51.0%	45.3%	21.4%	14.3%	5.6%
2026-09-24T16:32:28+00:00	51.0%	45.3%	21.4%	14.3%	5.6%
2026-09-24T17:17:33+00:00	51.0%	45.3%	22.2%	14.3%	5.6%
2026-09-24T18:02:39+00:00	51.0%	45.3%	22.2%	14.3%	5.6%
2026-09-24T18:47:43+00:00	51.0%	45.3%	22.2%	14.3%	5.6%
2026-09-24T19:32:53+00:00	48.0%	45.3%	22.2%	14.3%	2.5%
2026-09-24T20:18:01+00:00	48.0%	45.3%	22.2%	14.3%	2.5%
2026-09-24T21:03:07+00:00	48.0%	45.3%	22.2%	14.3%	2.5%
2026-09-24T21:48:12+00:00	48.0%	45.3%	22.2%	14.3%	2.5%
2026-09-24T22:33:17+00:00	48.0%	45.3%	22.2%	22.8%	2.5%
2026-09-24T23:18:23+00:00	48.0%	29.7%	22.2%	22.8%	2.5%
2026-09-25T00:03:30+00:00	48.0%	29.7%	22.2%	22.8%	2.5%
2026-09-25T00:48:42+00:00	48.0%	29.7%	22.2%	22.8%	2.5%
2026-09-25T01:33:51+00:00	46.1%	29.7%	22.2%	22.8%	2.5%
2026-09-25T02:18:58+00:00	46.1%	29.7%	22.2%	22.8%	2.5%
2026-09-25T03:04:17+00:00	46.1%	29.7%	22.2%	22.8%	2.5%
2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:00	46.1%	29.7%	22.2%	22.8%	2.5%
2026-09-25T04:34:50+00:00	46.1%	29.7%	22.2%	22.8%	3.1%
2026-09-25T05:19:58+00:00	46.1%	29.7%	35.1%	22.8%	3.1%
2026-09-25T06:05:05+00:00	46.1%	29.7%	35.1%	22.8%	3.1%
2026-09-25T06:50:10+00:00	46.1%	29.7%	35.1%	22.8%	3.1%
2026-09-25T07:35:17+00:00	46.1%	29.7%	35.1%	22.8%	3.1%
2026-09-25T08:20:24+00:00	46.1%	29.7%	35.1%	22.8%	3.1%
2026-09-25T09:05:29+00:00	46.1%	29.7%	35.1%	22.8%	3.1%
2026-09-25T09:50:34+00:00	46.1%	29.7%	35.1%	22.8%	3.1%
2026-09-25T10:35:40+00:00	46.1%	29.7%	35.1%	22.8%	3.1%
2026-09-25T11:20:46+00:00	46.1%	40.1%	35.1%	22.8%	3.1%
2026-09-25T12:05:52+00:00	46.1%	40.1%	35.1%	22.8%	3.1%
2026-09-25T12:50:57+00:00	46.1%	40.1%	35.1%	22.8%	3.1%
2026-09-25T13:36:04+00:00	52.6%	40.1%	35.1%	22.8%	3.1%
2026-09-25T14:23:06+00:00	52.6%	40.1%	35.2%	22.8%	3.1%
2026-09-25T15:08:11+00:00	52.6%	38.5%	35.2%	22.8%	3.1%
2026-09-25T15:53:17+00:00	52.6%	38.5%	35.2%	22.8%	3.1%
2026-09-25T16:38:23+00:00	52.6%	38.5%	35.2%	22.8%	3.5%
2026-09-25T17:23:30+00:00	52.6%	38.5%	14.8%	22.8%	3.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-25 02:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	81.7°F	3.1°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	80.8°F	2.4°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	78.7°F	3.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	78.8°F	2.6°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
ICON	4%	75.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260925-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 19 · 03:08 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗