KBNA / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST32%Sep 25 · 17:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

38%

23%

15%

Consensus

32%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 28.1¢Risks 28.05u

ICONNO 72.0¢Risks 71.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +71.95u · ICON −71.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	—	—	—	57.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	63.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	89.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	58.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	45.0%	—	—	49.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	37.8%	—	—	24.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	28.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	0.5%	19.8%	—	—	23.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	39.6%	36.9%	17.1%	—	23.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	45.6%	54.4%	7.1%	—	30.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	28.9%	64.2%	23.9%	—	28.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	46.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	29.5%	38.2%	31.6%	—	37.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	10.2%	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	18.4%	40.1%	31.5%	—	40.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	20.1%	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	43.0%	68.6%	20.2%	—	41.3%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	65.8%	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	42.7%	84.5%	40.9%	—	40.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	37.9%	69.9%	—	—	50.9%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	56.8%	59.6%	26.3%	27.1%	46.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	65.6%	72.6%	—	—	43.0%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	66.0%	78.1%	28.5%	—	34.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	31.6%	65.5%	—	—	29.8%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	14.3%	74.5%	25.5%	—	14.9%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	12.9%	70.4%	0.0%	—	12.9%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	8.5%	66.9%	19.9%	31.0%	13.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	11.9%	74.7%	17.5%	—	6.6%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	8.9%	57.4%	19.1%	1.1%	5.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	4.9%	53.9%	20.9%	—	7.2%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	3.0%	63.2%	21.0%	0.5%	9.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	4.7%	48.6%	18.2%	—	7.6%
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	6.3%	51.4%	16.3%	5.1%	11.5%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	8.6%	48.5%	15.3%	—	13.6%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	5.7%	48.4%	18.1%	3.7%	8.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	13.2%	41.8%	25.4%	—	16.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-25 02:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	81.7°F	3.1°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	80.8°F	2.4°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	78.7°F	3.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	78.8°F	2.6°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
ICON	4%	75.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260925-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 19 · 03:08 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗