KBNA / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Sep 24 · 02:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

27%

14%

11%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 19.4¢Risks 19.40u

ICONNO 80.6¢Risks 80.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +80.60u · ICON −80.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	42.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	46.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	52.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	57.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	83.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	46.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	33.0%	—	—	37.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	26.2%	—	—	15.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	0.2%	11.8%	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	26.9%	24.6%	9.6%	—	14.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	31.7%	39.9%	3.3%	—	18.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	64.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	17.4%	49.2%	13.8%	—	16.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	17.4%	24.2%	18.9%	—	23.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	4.7%	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	9.3%	25.1%	18.4%	—	25.8%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	10.3%	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	26.9%	51.7%	10.1%	—	25.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	48.2%	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	25.9%	71.0%	24.4%	—	23.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	21.7%	51.9%	—	—	32.6%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	37.6%	40.4%	13.1%	13.6%	27.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	46.0%	54.0%	—	—	24.9%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	45.9%	60.2%	13.9%	—	18.3%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	15.6%	44.7%	—	—	14.4%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	5.3%	54.4%	11.4%	—	5.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	4.5%	48.9%	0.0%	—	4.5%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	2.5%	44.2%	7.6%	14.0%	4.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	3.7%	52.4%	6.2%	—	1.7%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	2.5%	33.1%	6.7%	0.2%	1.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	1.1%	29.1%	7.2%	—	1.8%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.5%	36.8%	7.0%	0.1%	2.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.9%	23.2%	5.4%	—	1.7%
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.2%	24.5%	4.4%	0.9%	2.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	1.7%	21.3%	3.7%	—	3.2%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.9%	20.3%	4.4%	0.5%	1.5%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.6%	15.0%	6.8%	—	3.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 14:00	Pending
National Blend	42%	83.0°F	2.6°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	82.6°F	2.6°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	80.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	79.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	79.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
ICON	2%	76.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260925-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 18 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 84°F · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗