KBNA / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 23 · 04:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 6.4¢Risks 3.20u

WN2NO 93.6¢Risks 46.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.80u · WN2 −46.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	15.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	17.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	20.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	15.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	8.3%	—	—	10.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	5.3%	—	—	2.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.0%	1.4%	—	—	1.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	4.7%	4.0%	0.9%	—	1.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	5.7%	8.7%	0.2%	—	2.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	22.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.8%	12.2%	1.3%	—	1.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	1.6%	2.9%	1.9%	—	2.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.2%	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.5%	2.7%	1.6%	—	2.8%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.5%	5.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.7%	10.1%	0.5%	—	2.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	8.1%	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.1%	20.3%	1.9%	—	1.8%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.4%	8.4%	—	—	3.0%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.8%	4.4%	0.5%	0.5%	2.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.4%	8.0%	—	—	1.5%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.9%	9.8%	0.4%	—	0.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	4.2%	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	6.2%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	4.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.9%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	4.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	12%	84.3°F	4.5°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	85.9°F	2.9°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
ICON	6%	83.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	81.3°F	4.4°F	2026-09-22 18:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	83.0°F	3.2°F	2026-09-22 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	79.7°F	3.7°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260925-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 18 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗