KBNA / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Sep 24 · 02:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

37%

30%

10%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 35.2¢Risks 35.20u

WN2NO 64.8¢Risks 64.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +64.80u · WN2 −64.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	62.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	15.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	42.8%	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	42.5%	—	—	29.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	77.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	—	26.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	8.2%	22.8%	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	38.9%	29.8%	8.7%	—	28.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	52.9%	7.9%	19.4%	—	33.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	33.7%	28.3%	15.5%	—	36.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	39.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	42.1%	36.7%	21.2%	—	33.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	16.3%	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	40.9%	92.6%	33.8%	—	27.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	18.4%	62.6%	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	59.6%	37.1%	12.2%	—	42.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	58.9%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	33.0%	29.7%	12.9%	—	34.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	14.3%	32.6%	—	—	28.4%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	1.4%	15.9%	14.2%	—	17.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	4.4%	24.1%	—	—	11.4%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	8.2%	8.6%	17.0%	—	10.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	1.3%	13.2%	—	—	2.6%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	1.1%	5.9%	15.5%	—	11.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	0.9%	44.4%	0.0%	—	10.7%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	1.1%	22.4%	13.4%	—	11.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	0.5%	35.9%	19.1%	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	2.8%	42.6%	14.4%	0.0%	7.5%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	0.6%	39.8%	15.0%	—	10.3%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	2.6%	6.1%	15.7%	0.0%	5.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	4.7%	11.1%	19.1%	—	3.7%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	3.7%	17.2%	25.6%	0.9%	9.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	7.0%	42.5%	15.3%	—	3.2%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	4.8%	65.4%	16.1%	0.5%	6.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	25.4%	63.0%	21.6%	—	26.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	63%	82.4°F	2.7°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	82.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-23 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	80.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	79.2°F	4.5°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
ICON	10%	76.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	76.2°F	3.7°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260926-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 19 · 11:25 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗