KBNA / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST13%Sep 23 · 14:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

24%

18%

<1%

Consensus

13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 17.1¢Risks 17.05u

ICONNO 83.0¢Risks 82.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +82.95u · ICON −82.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	31.3%	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	30.7%	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	16.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	4.2%	13.9%	—	—	18.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	26.3%	18.9%	4.4%	—	17.5%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	38.5%	3.8%	10.9%	—	21.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	21.1%	16.9%	8.1%	—	23.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	27.4%	23.0%	11.5%	—	20.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	8.2%	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	25.8%	84.8%	20.1%	—	15.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	9.2%	45.7%	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	42.2%	22.1%	5.4%	—	26.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	41.1%	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	18.4%	16.0%	5.5%	—	19.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	6.1%	17.7%	—	—	14.8%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.4%	6.8%	5.9%	—	7.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	1.4%	11.4%	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	2.8%	3.0%	7.1%	—	4.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	0.3%	5.0%	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	0.2%	1.7%	5.9%	—	4.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	0.2%	24.0%	0.0%	—	3.5%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	0.2%	9.0%	4.5%	—	3.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	0.1%	16.7%	7.0%	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.6%	20.8%	4.6%	0.0%	2.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.1%	18.2%	4.6%	—	2.8%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	0.4%	1.3%	4.6%	0.0%	1.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	0.9%	2.7%	5.8%	—	0.7%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	0.6%	4.7%	8.3%	0.1%	2.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	1.3%	17.2%	3.7%	—	0.4%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.7%	34.6%	3.7%	0.0%	1.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.8%	30.9%	5.3%	—	7.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	84.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-23 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	82.4°F	2.6°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	80.3°F	4.5°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	18%	79.5°F	4.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	76.4°F	3.7°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	72.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260926-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 20 · 03:14 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 84°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗