KBNA / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Sep 23 · 04:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 8.6¢Risks 4.30u

WN2NO 91.4¢Risks 45.70u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.70u · WN2 −45.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	29.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	12.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	10.6%	—	—	5.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	9.8%	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.5%	2.7%	—	—	4.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	6.5%	3.9%	0.5%	—	3.5%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	11.3%	0.4%	1.6%	—	4.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	3.9%	2.8%	0.9%	—	4.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.5%	4.1%	1.4%	—	3.3%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.5%	49.2%	3.0%	—	2.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.8%	11.9%	—	—	1.8%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	9.7%	3.1%	0.3%	—	4.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	8.8%	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.0%	1.6%	0.3%	—	2.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	1.7%	—	—	1.3%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.3%	—	0.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.7%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	1.7%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	0.1%	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	17%	83.7°F	5.0°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	12%	84.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-23 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	85.1°F	2.8°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
ICON	6%	81.0°F	4.7°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-22 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	78.8°F	4.7°F	2026-09-22 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	76.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260926-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 19 · 07:39 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗