KBNA / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 22 · 22:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 7.0¢Risks 3.50u

AIFSNO 93.0¢Risks 46.50u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.50u · AIFS −46.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T22:18:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-19T07:39:54+00:00	8.3%	2.1%	1.7%	8.1%	10.8%
2026-09-19T08:25:24+00:00	8.3%	2.1%	1.7%	8.1%	10.8%
2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00	8.3%	2.1%	1.7%	8.1%	10.8%
2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00	8.3%	2.1%	1.7%	8.1%	10.8%
2026-09-19T10:40:46+00:00	8.3%	2.1%	1.7%	8.1%	10.8%
2026-09-19T11:25:54+00:00	8.3%	2.8%	1.7%	8.1%	10.8%
2026-09-19T12:11:04+00:00	8.3%	2.8%	1.7%	8.1%	10.8%
2026-09-19T12:56:08+00:00	8.3%	2.8%	1.7%	8.1%	10.8%
2026-09-19T13:41:14+00:00	5.8%	2.8%	1.7%	8.1%	10.8%
2026-09-19T14:27:50+00:00	5.8%	2.8%	1.7%	8.1%	10.8%
2026-09-19T15:13:01+00:00	5.8%	2.8%	1.7%	8.1%	10.8%
2026-09-19T15:58:14+00:00	5.8%	2.8%	1.7%	8.1%	10.8%
2026-09-19T16:43:19+00:00	5.8%	2.8%	1.7%	8.1%	28.7%
2026-09-19T17:28:24+00:00	5.8%	2.8%	1.7%	8.1%	28.7%
2026-09-19T18:13:29+00:00	5.8%	2.8%	1.7%	8.1%	28.7%
2026-09-19T18:58:38+00:00	5.8%	2.8%	1.7%	8.1%	28.7%
2026-09-19T19:43:43+00:00	5.4%	2.8%	1.7%	6.3%	28.7%
2026-09-19T20:28:48+00:00	5.4%	2.8%	1.7%	6.3%	28.7%
2026-09-19T21:13:52+00:00	5.4%	2.8%	1.7%	6.3%	28.7%
2026-09-19T21:58:57+00:00	5.4%	2.8%	1.7%	6.3%	28.7%
2026-09-19T22:44:03+00:00	5.4%	2.8%	1.7%	6.3%	28.7%
2026-09-19T23:29:08+00:00	5.4%	2.9%	1.7%	6.3%	28.7%
2026-09-20T00:14:14+00:00	5.4%	2.9%	1.7%	6.3%	28.7%
2026-09-20T00:59:23+00:00	5.4%	2.9%	1.7%	6.3%	28.7%
2026-09-20T01:44:30+00:00	5.1%	2.9%	1.7%	6.3%	28.7%
2026-09-20T02:29:37+00:00	5.1%	2.9%	1.7%	6.3%	28.7%
2026-09-20T03:14:47+00:00	5.1%	2.9%	1.7%	6.3%	28.7%
2026-09-20T04:00:03+00:00	5.1%	2.9%	1.7%	6.3%	28.7%
2026-09-20T04:45:09+00:00	5.1%	2.9%	1.7%	6.3%	26.0%
2026-09-20T05:30:14+00:00	5.1%	2.9%	1.7%	6.3%	26.0%
2026-09-20T06:15:19+00:00	5.1%	2.9%	1.7%	6.3%	26.0%
2026-09-20T07:00:27+00:00	5.1%	2.9%	1.7%	6.3%	26.0%
2026-09-20T07:45:42+00:00	5.1%	2.9%	1.7%	7.8%	26.0%
2026-09-20T08:31:12+00:00	5.1%	2.9%	1.7%	7.8%	26.0%
2026-09-20T09:16:17+00:00	5.1%	2.9%	1.7%	7.8%	26.0%
2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00	5.1%	2.9%	1.7%	7.8%	26.0%
2026-09-20T10:46:26+00:00	5.1%	2.9%	1.7%	7.8%	26.0%
2026-09-20T11:31:34+00:00	5.1%	4.4%	1.7%	7.8%	26.0%
2026-09-20T12:16:52+00:00	5.1%	4.4%	1.7%	7.8%	26.0%
2026-09-20T13:01:57+00:00	5.1%	4.4%	1.7%	7.8%	26.0%
2026-09-20T13:47:03+00:00	4.4%	4.4%	1.7%	7.8%	26.0%
2026-09-20T14:33:34+00:00	4.4%	4.2%	1.8%	7.8%	26.0%
2026-09-20T15:18:48+00:00	4.4%	4.6%	1.8%	7.8%	26.0%
2026-09-20T16:04:07+00:00	4.4%	4.6%	1.8%	7.8%	26.0%
2026-09-20T16:49:12+00:00	4.4%	4.6%	1.8%	7.8%	15.3%
2026-09-20T17:34:18+00:00	4.4%	4.6%	1.8%	7.8%	15.3%
2026-09-20T18:19:23+00:00	4.4%	4.6%	1.8%	7.8%	15.3%
2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00	4.4%	4.6%	1.8%	7.8%	15.3%
2026-09-20T19:49:36+00:00	1.3%	4.6%	1.8%	7.8%	15.3%
2026-09-20T20:34:41+00:00	1.3%	4.6%	1.8%	7.8%	15.3%
2026-09-20T21:19:46+00:00	1.3%	4.6%	1.8%	7.8%	15.3%
2026-09-20T22:04:50+00:00	1.3%	4.6%	1.8%	7.8%	15.3%
2026-09-20T22:49:58+00:00	1.3%	4.6%	1.8%	10.2%	15.3%
2026-09-20T23:35:05+00:00	1.3%	4.9%	1.8%	10.2%	15.3%
2026-09-21T00:20:13+00:00	1.3%	4.9%	1.8%	10.2%	15.3%
2026-09-21T01:05:23+00:00	1.3%	4.9%	1.8%	10.2%	15.3%
2026-09-21T01:50:29+00:00	0.7%	4.9%	1.8%	10.2%	15.3%
2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00	0.7%	4.9%	1.8%	10.2%	15.3%
2026-09-21T03:20:45+00:00	0.7%	4.9%	1.8%	10.2%	15.3%
2026-09-21T04:06:01+00:00	0.7%	4.9%	1.8%	10.2%	15.3%
2026-09-21T04:51:09+00:00	0.7%	4.9%	1.8%	10.2%	12.7%
2026-09-21T05:36:17+00:00	0.7%	4.9%	1.8%	10.2%	12.7%
2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00	0.7%	4.9%	1.8%	10.2%	12.7%
2026-09-21T07:06:30+00:00	0.7%	4.9%	1.8%	10.2%	12.7%
2026-09-21T07:51:35+00:00	0.5%	4.9%	1.8%	10.2%	12.7%
2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00	0.5%	4.9%	1.8%	10.2%	12.7%
2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00	0.5%	4.9%	1.8%	10.2%	12.7%
2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00	0.5%	4.9%	1.8%	10.2%	12.7%
2026-09-21T10:52:09+00:00	0.5%	4.9%	1.8%	8.3%	12.7%
2026-09-21T11:37:52+00:00	0.5%	4.1%	1.8%	8.3%	12.7%
2026-09-21T12:23:01+00:00	0.5%	4.1%	1.8%	8.3%	12.7%
2026-09-21T13:08:06+00:00	0.5%	4.1%	1.8%	8.3%	12.7%
2026-09-21T13:53:12+00:00	0.4%	4.1%	1.8%	8.3%	12.6%
2026-09-21T14:40:18+00:00	0.4%	4.1%	1.8%	8.3%	12.6%
2026-09-21T15:25:30+00:00	0.4%	4.1%	1.8%	8.3%	12.6%
2026-09-21T16:10:46+00:00	0.4%	4.1%	1.8%	8.3%	12.6%
2026-09-21T16:55:51+00:00	0.4%	4.1%	1.8%	8.3%	12.3%
2026-09-21T17:40:57+00:00	0.4%	4.1%	1.8%	8.3%	12.3%
2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00	0.4%	4.1%	1.8%	8.3%	12.3%
2026-09-21T19:11:11+00:00	0.4%	4.1%	1.8%	8.3%	12.3%
2026-09-21T19:56:19+00:00	0.6%	4.1%	1.8%	9.7%	12.3%
2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00	0.6%	4.1%	1.8%	9.7%	12.3%
2026-09-21T21:26:36+00:00	0.6%	4.1%	1.8%	9.7%	12.3%
2026-09-21T22:11:42+00:00	0.6%	4.1%	1.8%	9.7%	12.3%
2026-09-21T22:56:47+00:00	0.6%	4.4%	1.8%	9.7%	12.3%
2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00	0.6%	4.4%	1.8%	9.7%	12.3%
2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00	0.6%	4.4%	1.8%	9.7%	12.3%
2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00	0.6%	4.4%	1.8%	9.7%	12.3%
2026-09-22T01:57:12+00:00	0.9%	4.4%	1.8%	9.7%	12.3%
2026-09-22T02:42:25+00:00	0.9%	4.4%	1.8%	9.7%	12.3%
2026-09-22T03:27:45+00:00	0.9%	4.4%	1.8%	9.7%	12.3%
2026-09-22T04:12:49+00:00	0.9%	4.4%	1.8%	9.7%	12.3%
2026-09-22T04:57:59+00:00	0.9%	4.4%	1.8%	9.7%	12.3%
2026-09-22T05:43:19+00:00	0.9%	4.4%	1.8%	9.7%	12.3%
2026-09-22T06:28:40+00:00	0.9%	4.4%	1.8%	9.7%	12.3%
2026-09-22T07:13:49+00:00	0.9%	4.4%	1.8%	9.7%	12.3%
2026-09-22T07:59:08+00:00	0.6%	4.4%	1.8%	12.5%	12.3%
2026-09-22T08:44:41+00:00	0.6%	4.4%	1.8%	12.5%	12.3%
2026-09-22T09:29:46+00:00	0.6%	4.4%	1.8%	12.5%	12.3%
2026-09-22T10:14:51+00:00	0.6%	4.4%	1.8%	12.5%	12.3%
2026-09-22T11:00:00+00:00	0.6%	4.8%	1.8%	12.5%	12.3%
2026-09-22T11:45:10+00:00	0.6%	4.8%	1.8%	12.5%	12.3%
2026-09-22T12:30:15+00:00	0.6%	4.8%	1.8%	12.5%	12.3%
2026-09-22T13:15:20+00:00	0.6%	4.8%	1.8%	12.5%	12.3%
2026-09-22T14:00:28+00:00	1.4%	4.8%	1.8%	12.5%	12.3%
2026-09-22T14:47:13+00:00	1.4%	4.8%	1.8%	12.5%	12.3%
2026-09-22T15:32:22+00:00	1.4%	4.8%	1.8%	12.5%	12.3%
2026-09-22T16:17:40+00:00	1.4%	4.8%	1.8%	12.5%	12.3%
2026-09-22T17:02:46+00:00	1.4%	4.8%	1.8%	12.5%	3.6%
2026-09-22T17:47:52+00:00	1.4%	4.8%	1.8%	12.5%	3.6%
2026-09-22T18:32:56+00:00	1.4%	4.8%	1.8%	12.5%	3.6%
2026-09-22T19:18:05+00:00	1.4%	4.8%	1.8%	12.5%	3.6%
2026-09-22T20:03:10+00:00	1.5%	4.8%	1.8%	12.5%	3.6%
2026-09-22T20:48:15+00:00	1.5%	4.8%	1.8%	12.5%	3.6%
2026-09-22T21:33:22+00:00	1.5%	4.8%	1.8%	12.5%	3.6%
2026-09-22T22:18:31+00:00	1.5%	4.8%	1.8%	12.5%	3.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	12%	83.7°F	5.0°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-22 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	85.0°F	2.7°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
ICON	4%	81.0°F	4.7°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	78.1°F	5.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	82.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-22 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	79.4°F	4.7°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260926-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 19 · 07:39 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗