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KBNA / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 22 · 22:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
12%
EPS
5%
ICON
4%
WN2
2%
AIFS
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 7.0¢Risks 3.50u
VS
AIFSNO 93.0¢Risks 46.50u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.50u · AIFS −46.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.0% · 2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.6% · 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.0% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.3% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 64.5% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.9% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.2% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.9% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.6% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.5% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.7% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.1% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.4% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.4% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.3% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.3% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.3% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 40.9% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.2% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.7% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.8% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.8% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.3% · 2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.1% · 2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.3% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.0% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.8% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.1% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.3% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.0% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.9% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:0009-11 06:0009-19 00:0009-26 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:002.4%—————
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:000.7%————3.3%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:0027.0%—————
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:0012.3%————19.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:0029.2%—————
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:0015.2%————12.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:0051.6%—————
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:0041.0%————26.1%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:0011.0%—————
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:0019.3%————28.3%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:0064.5%—————
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:009.1%————22.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:0024.8%—————
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:003.7%————20.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:007.3%—————
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:009.6%————31.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:004.9%—————
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:0013.9%————20.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:0037.2%—————
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:005.9%————25.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:001.5%————20.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:002.2%—————
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:002.9%————10.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:001.2%—1.3%———
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:001.1%—8.1%——4.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:001.4%—4.4%———
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:001.7%—7.4%——3.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:002.2%—29.3%———
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:001.8%————2.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:001.5%—0.8%———
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:002.3%0.3%1.8%——2.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:001.3%—1.2%———
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:001.1%4.5%2.6%0.3%—2.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:000.8%—0.7%———
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:000.9%8.2%0.2%1.0%—2.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:000.6%—1.1%———
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:000.1%2.5%1.8%0.5%—3.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:000.0%—3.3%———
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:000.0%3.6%2.6%0.8%—2.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.4%26.3%———
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:000.0%2.8%40.9%1.8%—1.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.4%8.2%——1.0%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:000.0%6.5%1.8%0.2%—2.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:000.1%5.7%5.7%———
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:000.1%1.1%0.9%0.1%—1.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.9%——0.7%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.2%0.1%—0.2%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.3%——0.1%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%—0.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%——0.0%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%—0.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.8%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.3%0.1%——
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES12%83.7°F5.0°F2026-09-22 00:00Pending
NWS forecast11%84.0°F4.5°F2026-09-22 14:00Pending
IFS Ensemble5%85.0°F2.7°F2026-09-22 00:00Pending
ICON4%81.0°F4.7°F2026-09-22 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%78.1°F5.5°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending
National Blend2%82.0°F3.4°F2026-09-22 06:00Pending
AIFS Single2%79.4°F4.7°F2026-09-22 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260926-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 19 · 07:39 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗