KBNA / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Sep 27 · 07:05 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

78%

60%

48%

32%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.1¢Risks 60.05u

ICONNO 39.9¢Risks 39.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.95u · ICON −39.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	78.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	—	63.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	—	—	—	54.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	16.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	45.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	20.2%	—	—	49.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	24.6%	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	42.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	41.3%	—	—	—	54.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	35.6%	57.0%	11.9%	—	56.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	24.9%	62.3%	19.9%	—	61.6%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	95.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	69.7%	95.9%	6.0%	—	54.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	93.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	56.4%	93.8%	11.5%	—	69.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	21.8%	84.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	38.5%	52.5%	35.3%	—	67.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	20.1%	35.8%	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	14.6%	74.5%	42.2%	—	50.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	3.2%	8.8%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	7.6%	0.5%	26.6%	—	33.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	31.8%	1.4%	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	5.1%	27.9%	12.6%	—	30.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	22.6%	22.6%	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	1.6%	41.8%	7.8%	—	31.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	18.3%	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	22.1%	39.2%	26.4%	—	28.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	23.1%	45.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	19.9%	40.8%	28.9%	—	26.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	33.6%	57.2%	30.4%	—	34.7%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	37.7%	48.8%	38.9%	0.1%	58.7%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	38.5%	78.1%	37.3%	—	48.7%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	38.1%	29.5%	73.9%	36.8%	13.4%	46.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	51.4%	76.8%	43.1%	—	61.0%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	58.6%	69.5%	61.4%	42.8%	72.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	27.2%	59.0%	71.5%	56.0%	—	53.0%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	53.2%	77.4%	45.3%	37.6%	53.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	56.6%	71.9%	54.9%	—	66.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	88%	82.7°F	2.7°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	82.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	80.5°F	3.7°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-27 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	79.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	79.1°F	2.2°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
ICON	32%	77.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260927-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 24 · 15:01 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗