KBNA / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Sep 27 · 07:05 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

78%

60%

48%

32%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.1¢Risks 60.05u

ICONNO 39.9¢Risks 39.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.95u · ICON −39.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-24T15:01:51+00:00	57.3%	81.3%	24.1%	48.2%	5.6%
2026-09-24T15:47:18+00:00	57.3%	82.0%	24.1%	48.2%	5.6%
2026-09-24T16:32:28+00:00	57.3%	82.0%	24.1%	48.2%	5.6%
2026-09-24T17:17:33+00:00	57.3%	82.0%	17.8%	48.2%	5.6%
2026-09-24T18:02:39+00:00	57.3%	82.0%	17.8%	48.2%	5.6%
2026-09-24T18:47:43+00:00	57.3%	82.0%	17.8%	48.2%	5.6%
2026-09-24T19:32:53+00:00	65.1%	82.0%	17.8%	48.2%	2.3%
2026-09-24T20:18:01+00:00	65.1%	82.0%	17.8%	48.2%	2.3%
2026-09-24T21:03:07+00:00	65.1%	82.0%	17.8%	48.2%	2.3%
2026-09-24T21:48:12+00:00	65.1%	82.0%	17.8%	48.2%	2.3%
2026-09-24T22:33:17+00:00	65.1%	82.0%	17.8%	57.1%	2.3%
2026-09-24T23:18:23+00:00	65.1%	69.7%	15.8%	57.1%	2.3%
2026-09-25T00:03:30+00:00	65.1%	69.7%	15.8%	57.1%	2.3%
2026-09-25T00:48:42+00:00	65.1%	69.7%	15.8%	57.1%	2.3%
2026-09-25T01:33:51+00:00	67.6%	69.7%	15.8%	57.1%	2.3%
2026-09-25T02:18:58+00:00	67.6%	69.7%	15.8%	57.1%	2.3%
2026-09-25T03:04:17+00:00	67.6%	69.7%	15.8%	57.1%	2.3%
2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:00	67.6%	69.7%	15.8%	57.1%	2.3%
2026-09-25T04:34:50+00:00	67.6%	69.7%	15.8%	57.1%	18.2%
2026-09-25T05:19:58+00:00	67.6%	69.7%	26.7%	57.1%	18.2%
2026-09-25T06:05:05+00:00	67.6%	69.7%	26.7%	57.1%	18.2%
2026-09-25T06:50:10+00:00	67.6%	69.7%	26.7%	57.1%	18.2%
2026-09-25T07:35:17+00:00	68.4%	69.7%	26.7%	57.1%	18.2%
2026-09-25T08:20:24+00:00	68.4%	69.7%	26.7%	57.1%	18.2%
2026-09-25T09:05:29+00:00	68.4%	69.7%	26.7%	57.1%	18.2%
2026-09-25T09:50:34+00:00	68.4%	69.7%	26.7%	57.1%	18.2%
2026-09-25T10:35:40+00:00	68.4%	69.7%	26.7%	57.1%	18.2%
2026-09-25T11:20:46+00:00	68.4%	66.2%	26.7%	57.1%	18.2%
2026-09-25T12:05:52+00:00	68.4%	66.2%	26.7%	57.1%	18.2%
2026-09-25T12:50:57+00:00	68.4%	66.2%	26.7%	57.1%	18.2%
2026-09-25T13:36:04+00:00	69.2%	66.2%	26.7%	57.1%	18.2%
2026-09-25T14:23:06+00:00	69.2%	65.8%	26.7%	57.1%	18.2%
2026-09-25T15:08:11+00:00	69.2%	66.2%	26.7%	57.1%	18.2%
2026-09-25T15:53:17+00:00	69.2%	66.2%	26.7%	57.1%	18.2%
2026-09-25T16:38:23+00:00	69.2%	66.2%	26.7%	57.1%	17.5%
2026-09-25T17:23:30+00:00	69.2%	66.2%	17.5%	57.1%	17.5%
2026-09-25T18:08:46+00:00	69.2%	66.2%	17.5%	57.1%	17.5%
2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00	69.2%	66.2%	17.5%	57.1%	17.5%
2026-09-25T19:39:33+00:00	66.7%	66.2%	17.5%	45.2%	17.5%
2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00	66.7%	66.2%	17.5%	45.2%	17.5%
2026-09-25T21:10:22+00:00	66.7%	66.2%	17.5%	45.2%	17.5%
2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00	66.7%	66.2%	17.5%	45.2%	17.5%
2026-09-25T22:40:32+00:00	66.7%	66.2%	17.5%	45.2%	17.5%
2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00	66.7%	66.2%	16.8%	45.2%	17.5%
2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00	66.7%	66.2%	16.8%	45.2%	17.5%
2026-09-26T00:55:52+00:00	66.7%	66.2%	16.8%	45.2%	17.5%
2026-09-26T01:41:04+00:00	69.2%	66.2%	16.8%	45.2%	17.5%
2026-09-26T02:26:22+00:00	69.2%	66.2%	16.8%	45.2%	17.5%
2026-09-26T03:11:44+00:00	69.2%	66.2%	16.8%	45.2%	17.5%
2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00	69.2%	66.2%	16.8%	45.2%	17.5%
2026-09-26T04:42:05+00:00	69.2%	66.2%	16.8%	45.2%	25.7%
2026-09-26T05:27:18+00:00	69.2%	66.2%	23.9%	45.2%	25.7%
2026-09-26T06:12:25+00:00	69.2%	66.2%	23.9%	45.2%	25.7%
2026-09-26T06:57:30+00:00	69.2%	66.2%	23.9%	45.2%	25.7%
2026-09-26T07:42:58+00:00	77.7%	66.2%	23.9%	73.9%	25.7%
2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00	77.7%	66.2%	23.9%	73.9%	25.7%
2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00	77.7%	66.2%	23.9%	73.9%	25.7%
2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00	77.7%	66.2%	23.9%	73.9%	25.7%
2026-09-26T10:44:04+00:00	77.7%	66.2%	23.9%	73.9%	25.7%
2026-09-26T11:29:16+00:00	77.7%	88.0%	28.9%	73.9%	25.7%
2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00	77.7%	88.0%	28.9%	73.9%	25.7%
2026-09-26T12:59:35+00:00	77.7%	88.0%	28.9%	73.9%	25.7%
2026-09-26T13:44:43+00:00	77.0%	88.0%	28.9%	73.9%	25.7%
2026-09-26T14:32:08+00:00	77.0%	88.0%	28.9%	73.9%	25.7%
2026-09-26T15:17:30+00:00	77.0%	87.4%	28.9%	73.9%	25.7%
2026-09-26T16:02:36+00:00	77.0%	87.4%	28.9%	73.9%	25.7%
2026-09-26T16:47:42+00:00	77.0%	87.4%	28.9%	73.9%	20.6%
2026-09-26T17:32:51+00:00	77.0%	87.4%	28.9%	73.9%	20.6%
2026-09-26T18:17:59+00:00	77.0%	87.4%	28.9%	73.9%	20.6%
2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00	77.0%	87.4%	28.9%	73.9%	20.6%
2026-09-26T19:48:18+00:00	76.2%	87.4%	28.9%	60.5%	20.6%
2026-09-26T20:33:26+00:00	76.2%	87.4%	28.9%	60.5%	20.6%
2026-09-26T21:18:32+00:00	76.2%	87.4%	28.9%	60.5%	20.6%
2026-09-26T22:03:38+00:00	76.2%	87.4%	28.9%	60.5%	20.6%
2026-09-26T22:48:45+00:00	76.2%	87.4%	28.9%	60.5%	20.6%
2026-09-26T23:33:55+00:00	76.2%	88.1%	23.2%	60.5%	20.6%
2026-09-27T00:19:03+00:00	76.2%	88.1%	23.2%	60.5%	20.6%
2026-09-27T01:04:12+00:00	76.2%	88.1%	23.2%	60.5%	20.6%
2026-09-27T01:49:25+00:00	78.5%	88.1%	23.2%	60.5%	20.6%
2026-09-27T02:34:31+00:00	78.5%	88.1%	23.2%	60.5%	20.6%
2026-09-27T03:19:45+00:00	78.5%	88.1%	23.2%	60.5%	20.6%
2026-09-27T04:05:13+00:00	78.5%	88.1%	23.2%	60.5%	20.6%
2026-09-27T04:50:19+00:00	78.5%	88.1%	23.2%	60.5%	32.0%
2026-09-27T05:35:28+00:00	78.5%	88.1%	47.7%	60.5%	32.0%
2026-09-27T06:20:38+00:00	78.5%	88.1%	47.7%	60.5%	32.0%
2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00	78.5%	88.1%	47.7%	60.5%	32.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	88%	82.7°F	2.7°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	82.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	80.5°F	3.7°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-27 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	79.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	79.1°F	2.2°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
ICON	32%	77.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260927-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 24 · 15:01 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗