KBNA / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Sep 24 · 14:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

39%

31%

11%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 31.9¢Risks 31.95u

ICONNO 68.0¢Risks 68.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +68.05u · ICON −68.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	—	69.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	52.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	41.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	12.5%	—	—	37.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	15.6%	—	—	40.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	28.8%	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	23.5%	43.0%	6.3%	—	42.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	14.8%	47.8%	11.3%	—	47.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	55.3%	91.3%	2.7%	—	39.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	40.5%	87.3%	5.5%	—	54.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	11.8%	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	23.8%	36.1%	21.3%	—	50.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	10.3%	21.4%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	6.8%	58.7%	26.2%	—	33.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	1.1%	3.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	2.9%	0.1%	13.9%	—	19.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	0.4%	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	1.7%	14.2%	5.1%	—	15.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	10.5%	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	0.4%	23.5%	2.6%	—	15.7%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	7.6%	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	9.4%	20.6%	11.9%	—	13.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	9.7%	24.9%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	7.6%	20.7%	12.7%	—	11.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	15.2%	33.6%	13.2%	—	16.0%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	17.4%	25.6%	18.2%	0.0%	34.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	19.1%	17.4%	55.1%	16.6%	—	24.8%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	11.3%	48.7%	15.7%	3.7%	22.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	25.3%	51.4%	19.1%	—	33.8%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	19.1%	30.5%	41.4%	33.1%	18.2%	44.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	29.8%	42.5%	27.2%	—	24.8%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	23.8%	48.4%	18.1%	13.4%	23.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	25.4%	40.2%	24.1%	—	33.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	71%	84.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	82.3°F	2.6°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-24 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	39%	80.3°F	4.4°F	2026-09-24 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	79.3°F	4.5°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	76.9°F	3.7°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
ICON	2%	73.3°F	3.9°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260927-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 24 · 02:56 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗