KBNA / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Sep 24 · 14:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

39%

31%

11%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 31.9¢Risks 31.95u

ICONNO 68.0¢Risks 68.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +68.05u · ICON −68.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T14:16:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-24T02:56:27+00:00	49.1%	75.8%	14.9%	38.3%	7.2%
2026-09-24T03:41:53+00:00	49.1%	75.8%	14.9%	38.3%	7.2%
2026-09-24T04:26:59+00:00	49.1%	75.8%	14.9%	38.3%	1.6%
2026-09-24T05:12:05+00:00	49.1%	75.8%	16.7%	38.3%	1.6%
2026-09-24T05:57:14+00:00	49.1%	75.8%	16.7%	38.3%	1.6%
2026-09-24T06:42:25+00:00	49.1%	75.8%	16.7%	38.3%	1.6%
2026-09-24T07:27:46+00:00	41.8%	75.8%	16.7%	31.2%	1.6%
2026-09-24T08:13:25+00:00	41.8%	75.8%	16.7%	31.2%	1.6%
2026-09-24T08:58:36+00:00	41.8%	75.8%	16.7%	31.2%	1.6%
2026-09-24T09:43:41+00:00	41.8%	75.8%	16.7%	31.2%	1.6%
2026-09-24T10:28:46+00:00	41.8%	75.8%	16.7%	31.2%	1.6%
2026-09-24T11:13:52+00:00	41.8%	62.4%	10.6%	31.2%	1.6%
2026-09-24T11:58:57+00:00	41.8%	62.4%	10.6%	31.2%	1.6%
2026-09-24T12:44:02+00:00	41.8%	62.4%	10.6%	31.2%	1.6%
2026-09-24T13:29:17+00:00	39.2%	62.4%	10.6%	31.2%	1.6%
2026-09-24T14:16:41+00:00	39.2%	62.1%	10.6%	31.2%	1.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	71%	84.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	82.3°F	2.6°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-24 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	39%	80.3°F	4.4°F	2026-09-24 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	79.3°F	4.5°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	76.9°F	3.7°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
ICON	2%	73.3°F	3.9°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260927-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 24 · 02:56 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗