KBNA / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Sep 24 · 02:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

32%

24%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 27.8¢Risks 27.75u

ICONNO 72.2¢Risks 72.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +72.25u · ICON −72.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	58.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	7.1%	—	—	25.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	34.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	9.0%	—	—	28.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	18.4%	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	14.1%	29.8%	3.0%	—	29.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	7.9%	33.7%	5.7%	—	33.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	40.2%	83.5%	1.0%	—	25.8%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	26.1%	77.0%	2.3%	—	38.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	5.5%	58.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	12.9%	21.9%	11.2%	—	34.5%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	4.5%	11.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	2.7%	41.3%	14.1%	—	19.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	0.3%	1.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	0.9%	0.0%	6.1%	—	9.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	0.1%	38.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	0.4%	5.9%	1.7%	—	6.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	4.0%	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	0.1%	10.8%	0.7%	—	6.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	2.5%	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	3.1%	8.5%	4.2%	—	4.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	3.1%	10.7%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	2.2%	8.1%	4.2%	—	3.5%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	5.1%	15.2%	4.3%	—	5.5%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	5.9%	10.0%	6.3%	0.0%	15.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	5.6%	30.2%	5.3%	—	9.2%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	3.0%	24.0%	4.6%	0.7%	7.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	8.6%	25.3%	5.8%	—	13.2%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	10.8%	17.2%	12.2%	5.1%	19.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	9.9%	17.2%	8.6%	—	7.5%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	6.6%	20.3%	4.4%	2.9%	6.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	6.8%	14.1%	6.3%	—	10.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	84.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-23 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	83.7°F	3.1°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	81.4°F	4.6°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	80.0°F	5.0°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	77.4°F	3.9°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
ICON	3%	74.6°F	4.7°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260927-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 20 · 11:31 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 84°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗