KBNA / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Sep 24 · 02:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

32%

24%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 27.8¢Risks 27.75u

ICONNO 72.2¢Risks 72.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +72.25u · ICON −72.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-20T11:31:34+00:00	27.6%	50.0%	17.3%	36.8%	45.1%
2026-09-20T12:16:52+00:00	27.6%	50.0%	17.3%	36.8%	45.1%
2026-09-20T13:01:57+00:00	27.6%	50.0%	17.3%	36.8%	45.1%
2026-09-20T13:47:03+00:00	24.7%	50.0%	17.3%	36.8%	45.1%
2026-09-20T14:33:34+00:00	24.7%	50.0%	17.4%	36.8%	45.1%
2026-09-20T15:18:48+00:00	24.7%	50.0%	17.4%	36.8%	45.1%
2026-09-20T16:04:07+00:00	24.7%	50.0%	17.4%	36.8%	45.1%
2026-09-20T16:49:12+00:00	24.7%	50.0%	17.4%	36.8%	41.9%
2026-09-20T17:34:18+00:00	24.7%	50.0%	17.4%	36.8%	41.9%
2026-09-20T18:19:23+00:00	24.7%	50.0%	17.4%	36.8%	41.9%
2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00	24.7%	50.0%	17.4%	36.8%	41.9%
2026-09-20T19:49:36+00:00	19.4%	50.0%	17.4%	36.8%	41.9%
2026-09-20T20:34:41+00:00	19.4%	50.0%	17.4%	36.8%	41.9%
2026-09-20T21:19:46+00:00	19.4%	50.0%	17.4%	36.8%	41.9%
2026-09-20T22:04:50+00:00	19.4%	50.0%	17.4%	36.8%	41.9%
2026-09-20T22:49:58+00:00	19.4%	50.0%	17.4%	39.3%	41.9%
2026-09-20T23:35:05+00:00	19.4%	51.0%	17.4%	39.3%	41.9%
2026-09-21T00:20:13+00:00	19.4%	51.0%	17.4%	39.3%	41.9%
2026-09-21T01:05:23+00:00	19.4%	51.0%	17.4%	39.3%	41.9%
2026-09-21T01:50:29+00:00	21.9%	51.0%	17.4%	39.3%	41.9%
2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00	21.9%	51.0%	17.4%	39.3%	41.9%
2026-09-21T15:25:30+00:00	22.1%	52.7%	17.5%	41.1%	25.6%
2026-09-21T16:10:46+00:00	22.1%	52.7%	17.5%	41.1%	25.6%
2026-09-21T16:55:51+00:00	22.1%	52.7%	17.5%	41.1%	60.9%
2026-09-21T17:40:57+00:00	22.1%	52.7%	17.5%	41.1%	60.9%
2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00	22.1%	52.7%	17.5%	41.1%	60.9%
2026-09-21T19:11:11+00:00	22.1%	52.7%	17.5%	41.1%	60.9%
2026-09-21T19:56:19+00:00	21.0%	52.7%	17.5%	42.2%	60.9%
2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00	21.0%	52.7%	17.5%	42.2%	60.9%
2026-09-21T21:26:36+00:00	21.0%	52.7%	17.5%	42.2%	60.9%
2026-09-21T22:11:42+00:00	21.0%	52.7%	17.5%	42.2%	60.9%
2026-09-21T22:56:47+00:00	21.0%	54.1%	17.5%	42.2%	60.9%
2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00	21.0%	54.1%	17.5%	42.2%	60.9%
2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00	21.0%	54.1%	17.5%	42.2%	60.9%
2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00	21.0%	54.1%	17.5%	42.2%	60.9%
2026-09-22T01:57:12+00:00	24.4%	54.1%	17.5%	42.2%	60.9%
2026-09-22T15:32:22+00:00	29.3%	74.1%	17.5%	37.9%	43.9%
2026-09-22T16:17:40+00:00	29.3%	74.1%	17.5%	37.9%	43.9%
2026-09-22T17:02:46+00:00	29.3%	74.1%	17.5%	37.9%	29.9%
2026-09-22T17:47:52+00:00	29.3%	74.1%	17.5%	37.9%	29.9%
2026-09-22T18:32:56+00:00	29.3%	74.1%	17.5%	37.9%	29.9%
2026-09-22T19:18:05+00:00	29.3%	74.1%	17.5%	37.9%	29.9%
2026-09-22T20:03:10+00:00	28.6%	74.1%	17.5%	37.9%	29.9%
2026-09-22T20:48:15+00:00	28.6%	74.1%	17.5%	37.9%	29.9%
2026-09-22T21:33:22+00:00	28.6%	74.1%	17.5%	37.9%	29.9%
2026-09-22T22:18:31+00:00	28.6%	74.1%	17.5%	37.9%	29.9%
2026-09-22T23:03:38+00:00	28.6%	74.4%	5.8%	37.9%	29.9%
2026-09-22T23:48:44+00:00	28.6%	74.4%	5.8%	37.9%	29.9%
2026-09-23T00:33:50+00:00	28.6%	74.4%	5.8%	37.9%	29.9%
2026-09-23T01:18:58+00:00	28.6%	74.4%	5.8%	37.9%	29.9%
2026-09-23T02:04:05+00:00	25.3%	74.4%	5.8%	37.9%	29.9%
2026-09-23T02:49:17+00:00	25.3%	74.4%	5.8%	37.9%	29.9%
2026-09-23T03:34:35+00:00	25.3%	74.4%	5.8%	37.9%	29.9%
2026-09-23T04:19:44+00:00	25.3%	74.4%	5.8%	37.9%	29.9%
2026-09-23T05:04:52+00:00	25.3%	74.4%	5.8%	60.1%	5.9%
2026-09-23T05:50:04+00:00	25.3%	74.4%	5.8%	60.1%	5.9%
2026-09-23T06:35:09+00:00	25.3%	74.4%	5.8%	60.1%	5.9%
2026-09-23T07:20:18+00:00	25.3%	74.4%	5.8%	60.1%	5.9%
2026-09-23T08:05:39+00:00	21.3%	74.4%	5.8%	26.3%	5.9%
2026-09-23T08:51:11+00:00	21.3%	74.4%	5.8%	26.3%	5.9%
2026-09-23T09:36:16+00:00	21.3%	74.4%	5.8%	26.3%	5.9%
2026-09-23T10:21:21+00:00	21.3%	74.4%	5.8%	26.3%	5.9%
2026-09-23T11:06:27+00:00	21.3%	52.5%	6.7%	26.3%	5.9%
2026-09-23T11:51:39+00:00	21.3%	52.5%	6.7%	26.3%	5.9%
2026-09-23T12:36:44+00:00	21.3%	52.5%	6.7%	26.3%	5.9%
2026-09-23T13:21:49+00:00	24.6%	52.5%	6.7%	26.3%	5.9%
2026-09-23T14:09:06+00:00	24.5%	52.5%	6.4%	26.3%	5.6%
2026-09-23T14:54:18+00:00	24.5%	52.5%	6.4%	26.3%	5.6%
2026-09-23T15:39:30+00:00	24.5%	52.5%	6.4%	26.3%	5.6%
2026-09-23T16:24:37+00:00	24.5%	52.5%	6.4%	26.3%	3.0%
2026-09-23T17:09:47+00:00	24.5%	52.5%	4.2%	26.3%	3.0%
2026-09-23T17:54:55+00:00	24.5%	52.5%	4.2%	26.3%	3.0%
2026-09-23T18:40:00+00:00	24.5%	52.5%	4.2%	26.3%	3.0%
2026-09-23T19:25:12+00:00	27.3%	52.5%	4.2%	24.4%	3.0%
2026-09-23T20:10:19+00:00	27.3%	52.5%	4.2%	24.4%	3.0%
2026-09-23T20:55:25+00:00	27.3%	52.5%	4.2%	24.4%	3.0%
2026-09-23T21:40:30+00:00	27.3%	52.5%	4.2%	24.4%	3.0%
2026-09-23T22:25:37+00:00	27.3%	52.5%	4.2%	24.4%	3.0%
2026-09-23T23:10:42+00:00	27.3%	52.5%	6.1%	24.4%	3.0%
2026-09-23T23:55:48+00:00	27.3%	52.5%	6.1%	24.4%	3.0%
2026-09-24T00:40:54+00:00	27.3%	52.5%	6.1%	24.4%	3.0%
2026-09-24T01:26:06+00:00	32.5%	52.5%	6.1%	24.4%	3.0%
2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:00	32.5%	52.5%	6.1%	24.4%	3.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	84.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-23 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	83.7°F	3.1°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	81.4°F	4.6°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	80.0°F	5.0°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	77.4°F	3.9°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
ICON	3%	74.6°F	4.7°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260927-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 20 · 11:31 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 84°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗