KBNA / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Sep 28 · 02:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

68%

67%

32%

11%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.9¢Risks 47.90u

WN2NO 52.1¢Risks 52.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.10u · WN2 −52.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	1.0%	—	—	56.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	—	—	—	55.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	65.2%	—	—	54.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	3.6%	56.7%	—	—	55.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	65.7%	86.3%	2.1%	—	61.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	58.0%	29.1%	35.0%	—	65.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	16.9%	72.4%	35.1%	—	62.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	15.4%	72.6%	18.9%	—	46.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	19.5%	0.4%	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	32.2%	63.9%	16.2%	—	41.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	26.0%	8.2%	74.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	19.6%	64.6%	13.1%	—	33.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	3.1%	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	17.8%	63.6%	13.9%	—	34.7%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	17.7%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	17.7%	49.0%	18.3%	—	28.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	18.3%	51.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	16.3%	60.2%	24.3%	—	24.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	24.5%	62.5%	—	—	27.1%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	29.2%	62.9%	34.1%	—	39.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	31.5%	70.4%	0.0%	—	36.7%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	27.0%	69.0%	31.0%	0.0%	28.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	39.3%	57.2%	23.4%	—	38.1%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	45.0%	65.8%	32.0%	30.9%	50.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	42.3%	55.1%	25.9%	—	43.6%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	44.6%	69.3%	27.3%	0.0%	44.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	44.4%	63.7%	32.5%	—	45.8%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	51.4%	70.7%	51.4%	41.4%	54.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	53.0%	64.8%	39.5%	—	28.5%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	46.8%	65.4%	39.1%	45.3%	26.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	51.6%	59.8%	50.0%	—	41.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	85%	84.1°F	2.5°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	83.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	83.1°F	3.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-27 14:00	Pending
ICON	32%	79.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	77.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260928-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 25 · 18:08 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗