KBNA / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Sep 28 · 02:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

68%

67%

32%

11%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.9¢Risks 47.90u

WN2NO 52.1¢Risks 52.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.10u · WN2 −52.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T02:42:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-25T18:08:46+00:00	52.7%	55.1%	8.3%	51.6%	19.2%
2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00	52.7%	55.1%	8.3%	51.6%	19.2%
2026-09-25T19:39:33+00:00	52.7%	55.1%	8.3%	42.1%	19.2%
2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00	52.7%	55.1%	8.3%	42.1%	19.2%
2026-09-25T21:10:22+00:00	52.7%	55.1%	8.3%	42.1%	19.2%
2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00	52.7%	55.1%	8.3%	42.1%	19.2%
2026-09-25T22:40:32+00:00	52.7%	55.1%	8.3%	42.1%	19.2%
2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00	52.7%	55.1%	6.5%	42.1%	20.0%
2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00	52.7%	55.1%	6.5%	42.1%	20.0%
2026-09-26T00:55:52+00:00	52.7%	55.1%	6.5%	42.1%	20.0%
2026-09-26T01:41:04+00:00	57.3%	55.1%	6.5%	42.1%	20.0%
2026-09-26T02:26:22+00:00	57.3%	55.1%	6.5%	42.1%	20.0%
2026-09-26T03:11:44+00:00	57.3%	55.1%	6.5%	42.1%	20.0%
2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00	57.3%	55.1%	6.5%	42.1%	20.0%
2026-09-26T04:42:05+00:00	57.3%	55.1%	6.5%	42.1%	24.8%
2026-09-26T05:27:18+00:00	57.3%	55.1%	11.1%	42.1%	24.8%
2026-09-26T06:12:25+00:00	57.3%	55.1%	11.1%	42.1%	24.8%
2026-09-26T06:57:30+00:00	57.3%	55.1%	11.1%	42.1%	24.8%
2026-09-26T07:42:58+00:00	64.0%	55.1%	11.1%	58.6%	24.8%
2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00	64.0%	55.1%	11.1%	58.6%	24.8%
2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00	64.0%	55.1%	11.1%	58.6%	24.8%
2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00	64.0%	55.1%	11.1%	58.6%	24.8%
2026-09-26T10:44:04+00:00	64.0%	55.1%	11.1%	58.6%	24.8%
2026-09-26T11:29:16+00:00	64.0%	73.1%	12.9%	58.6%	24.8%
2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00	64.0%	73.1%	12.9%	58.6%	24.8%
2026-09-26T12:59:35+00:00	64.0%	73.1%	12.9%	58.6%	24.8%
2026-09-26T13:44:43+00:00	62.2%	73.1%	12.9%	58.6%	24.8%
2026-09-26T14:32:08+00:00	62.2%	73.0%	12.9%	58.6%	24.8%
2026-09-26T15:17:30+00:00	62.2%	73.1%	12.9%	58.6%	24.8%
2026-09-26T16:02:36+00:00	62.2%	73.1%	12.9%	58.6%	24.8%
2026-09-26T16:47:42+00:00	62.2%	73.1%	12.9%	58.6%	23.9%
2026-09-26T17:32:51+00:00	62.2%	73.1%	12.9%	58.6%	23.9%
2026-09-26T18:17:59+00:00	62.2%	73.1%	12.9%	58.6%	23.9%
2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00	62.2%	73.1%	12.9%	58.6%	23.9%
2026-09-26T19:48:18+00:00	60.4%	73.1%	12.9%	48.1%	23.9%
2026-09-26T20:33:26+00:00	60.4%	73.1%	12.9%	48.1%	23.9%
2026-09-26T21:18:32+00:00	60.4%	73.1%	12.9%	48.1%	23.9%
2026-09-26T22:03:38+00:00	60.4%	73.1%	12.9%	48.1%	23.9%
2026-09-26T22:48:45+00:00	60.4%	73.1%	12.9%	48.1%	23.9%
2026-09-26T23:33:55+00:00	60.4%	73.1%	7.0%	48.1%	23.9%
2026-09-27T00:19:03+00:00	60.4%	73.1%	7.0%	48.1%	23.9%
2026-09-27T01:04:12+00:00	60.4%	73.1%	7.0%	48.1%	23.9%
2026-09-27T01:49:25+00:00	64.9%	73.1%	7.0%	48.1%	23.9%
2026-09-27T02:34:31+00:00	64.9%	73.1%	7.0%	48.1%	23.9%
2026-09-27T14:40:05+00:00	61.6%	83.0%	15.2%	68.5%	31.5%
2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00	61.6%	83.0%	15.2%	68.5%	31.5%
2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00	61.6%	83.0%	15.2%	68.5%	31.5%
2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00	61.6%	83.0%	9.3%	68.5%	31.5%
2026-09-27T17:40:47+00:00	61.6%	83.0%	9.3%	68.5%	31.5%
2026-09-27T18:25:58+00:00	61.6%	83.0%	9.3%	68.5%	31.5%
2026-09-27T19:11:08+00:00	61.6%	83.0%	9.3%	68.5%	31.5%
2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00	65.3%	83.0%	9.3%	66.6%	31.5%
2026-09-27T20:41:27+00:00	65.3%	83.0%	9.3%	66.6%	31.5%
2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00	65.3%	83.0%	9.3%	66.6%	31.5%
2026-09-27T22:11:36+00:00	65.3%	83.0%	9.3%	66.6%	31.5%
2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00	65.3%	84.9%	10.9%	66.6%	31.5%
2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00	65.3%	84.9%	10.9%	66.6%	31.5%
2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00	65.3%	84.9%	10.9%	66.6%	31.5%
2026-09-28T01:12:04+00:00	65.3%	84.9%	10.9%	66.6%	31.5%
2026-09-28T01:57:11+00:00	68.0%	84.9%	10.9%	66.6%	31.5%
2026-09-28T02:42:17+00:00	68.0%	84.9%	10.9%	66.6%	31.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	85%	84.1°F	2.5°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	83.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	83.1°F	3.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-27 14:00	Pending
ICON	32%	79.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	77.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260928-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 25 · 18:08 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗