KBNA / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Sep 21 · 10:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

33%

25%

12%

11%

11%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 21.8¢Risks 21.80u

WN2NO 78.2¢Risks 78.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +78.20u · WN2 −78.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	27.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	33.6%	—	—	24.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	0.4%	24.9%	—	—	23.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	31.7%	58.4%	0.2%	—	27.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	23.7%	7.1%	9.6%	—	30.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	2.8%	35.8%	9.0%	—	25.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	27.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	2.2%	34.5%	3.0%	—	13.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	0.0%	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	6.6%	24.5%	2.1%	—	10.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	0.7%	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	2.5%	23.4%	1.3%	—	6.2%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.1%	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	1.9%	20.9%	1.2%	—	6.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	1.7%	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	1.6%	10.7%	1.7%	—	3.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	1.6%	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	1.2%	15.1%	2.4%	—	2.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	2.2%	15.6%	—	—	2.6%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	2.8%	14.9%	3.8%	—	5.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	2.9%	19.0%	0.0%	—	4.0%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	1.9%	16.8%	2.5%	0.0%	2.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	3.7%	9.2%	1.3%	—	3.5%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	4.6%	12.4%	2.1%	2.0%	5.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	3.5%	6.8%	1.2%	—	3.7%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	3.5%	12.0%	1.1%	0.0%	3.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	3.0%	8.1%	1.4%	—	3.2%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	3.7%	10.2%	3.7%	2.1%	4.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.4%	6.5%	1.5%	—	0.7%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.0%	5.7%	1.2%	1.8%	0.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.1%	3.4%	1.9%	—	1.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	87.0°F	4.3°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	33%	84.9°F	3.6°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	82.3°F	6.2°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	75.0°F	9.8°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	79.7°F	5.5°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	79.3°F	5.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260928-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 21 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗