KBNA / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Sep 28 · 02:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

79%

77%

55%

12%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 53.8¢Risks 53.80u

WN2NO 46.2¢Risks 46.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.20u · WN2 −46.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	64.2%	—	—	48.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	7.6%	—	—	58.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	78.8%	—	—	65.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	8.2%	76.2%	—	—	72.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	75.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	44.4%	74.3%	15.8%	—	75.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	80.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	21.5%	72.8%	34.3%	—	65.7%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	58.3%	85.4%	19.5%	—	74.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	54.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	50.8%	8.1%	6.4%	—	69.2%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	0.4%	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	29.3%	83.2%	38.5%	—	73.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	35.8%	16.7%	73.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	26.2%	68.6%	18.4%	—	56.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	29.4%	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	24.4%	83.4%	22.3%	—	46.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	31.8%	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	33.0%	82.3%	20.3%	—	68.7%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	45.0%	35.3%	82.3%	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	30.3%	84.9%	13.9%	—	56.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	46.8%	72.1%	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	61.8%	78.7%	16.9%	—	75.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	59.0%	78.6%	0.0%	—	74.2%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	59.2%	80.1%	12.7%	—	71.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	60.7%	80.1%	13.9%	—	75.6%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	62.3%	88.2%	23.6%	36.5%	81.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	61.5%	81.8%	30.2%	—	67.5%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	42.0%	59.3%	86.6%	27.3%	38.1%	65.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	59.7%	77.9%	35.0%	—	73.5%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	42.8%	72.0%	78.8%	44.2%	45.7%	79.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	64.8%	81.9%	36.6%	—	67.5%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	22.6%	63.9%	77.4%	27.6%	39.1%	48.4%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	51.6%	79.7%	32.4%	—	71.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	87.9°F	2.5°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	86.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	77%	86.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-27 14:00	Pending
ICON	55%	83.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	82.9°F	3.2°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	79.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260929-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 27 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 84°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗