KBNA / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Sep 28 · 02:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

79%

77%

55%

12%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 53.8¢Risks 53.80u

WN2NO 46.2¢Risks 46.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.20u · WN2 −46.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T02:42:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-27T03:19:45+00:00	75.4%	90.8%	8.8%	63.1%	35.1%
2026-09-27T04:05:13+00:00	75.4%	90.8%	8.8%	63.1%	35.1%
2026-09-27T04:50:19+00:00	75.4%	90.8%	8.8%	63.1%	57.9%
2026-09-27T05:35:28+00:00	75.4%	90.8%	20.8%	63.1%	57.9%
2026-09-27T06:20:38+00:00	75.4%	90.8%	20.8%	63.1%	57.9%
2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00	75.4%	90.8%	20.8%	63.1%	57.9%
2026-09-27T07:51:10+00:00	79.2%	90.8%	20.8%	81.5%	57.9%
2026-09-27T08:36:52+00:00	79.2%	90.8%	20.8%	81.5%	57.9%
2026-09-27T09:21:59+00:00	79.2%	90.8%	20.8%	81.5%	57.9%
2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00	79.2%	90.8%	20.8%	81.5%	57.9%
2026-09-27T10:52:09+00:00	79.2%	90.8%	20.8%	81.5%	57.9%
2026-09-27T11:37:17+00:00	79.2%	95.5%	16.8%	81.5%	57.9%
2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00	79.2%	95.5%	16.8%	81.5%	57.9%
2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00	79.2%	95.5%	16.8%	81.5%	57.9%
2026-09-27T13:52:42+00:00	77.1%	95.5%	16.8%	81.5%	57.9%
2026-09-27T14:40:05+00:00	77.1%	95.5%	16.8%	81.5%	57.9%
2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00	77.1%	95.5%	16.8%	81.5%	57.9%
2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00	77.1%	95.5%	16.8%	81.5%	57.9%
2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00	77.1%	95.5%	11.2%	81.5%	54.5%
2026-09-27T17:40:47+00:00	77.1%	95.5%	11.2%	81.5%	54.5%
2026-09-27T18:25:58+00:00	77.1%	95.5%	11.2%	81.5%	54.5%
2026-09-27T19:11:08+00:00	77.1%	95.5%	11.2%	81.5%	54.5%
2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00	75.7%	95.5%	11.2%	76.7%	54.5%
2026-09-27T20:41:27+00:00	75.7%	95.5%	11.2%	76.7%	54.5%
2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00	75.7%	95.5%	11.2%	76.7%	54.5%
2026-09-27T22:11:36+00:00	75.7%	95.5%	11.2%	76.7%	54.5%
2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00	75.7%	95.9%	11.8%	76.7%	54.5%
2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00	75.7%	95.8%	11.8%	76.7%	54.5%
2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00	75.7%	95.8%	11.8%	76.7%	54.5%
2026-09-28T01:12:04+00:00	75.7%	95.8%	11.8%	76.7%	54.5%
2026-09-28T01:57:11+00:00	78.6%	95.8%	11.8%	76.7%	54.5%
2026-09-28T02:42:17+00:00	78.6%	95.8%	11.8%	76.7%	54.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	87.9°F	2.5°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	86.8°F	4.2°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	77%	86.5°F	4.1°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-27 14:00	Pending
ICON	55%	83.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	82.9°F	3.2°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	79.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260929-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 27 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 84°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗