KBNA / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Sep 28 · 14:01 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

70%

56%

26%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.3¢Risks 46.30u

WN2NO 53.7¢Risks 53.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.70u · WN2 −53.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	30.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	52.4%	—	—	36.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	4.0%	—	—	46.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	68.2%	—	—	52.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	4.2%	64.5%	—	—	60.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	63.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	31.1%	61.8%	8.7%	—	63.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	12.4%	59.4%	22.1%	—	51.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	33.7%	43.2%	74.9%	10.7%	—	61.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	39.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	35.2%	3.6%	2.7%	—	54.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	0.1%	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	16.8%	70.7%	23.8%	—	58.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	8.2%	57.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	14.1%	51.7%	9.0%	—	38.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	21.5%	16.1%	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	12.4%	69.5%	11.0%	—	28.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	17.1%	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	17.7%	67.0%	9.4%	—	50.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	19.0%	66.5%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	15.1%	69.7%	5.5%	—	35.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	27.1%	52.1%	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	40.3%	59.7%	6.6%	—	55.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	25.8%	36.7%	59.0%	0.0%	—	53.4%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	36.3%	60.4%	4.2%	—	48.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	37.0%	59.5%	4.5%	—	53.6%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	24.6%	37.7%	71.3%	8.9%	16.6%	61.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	36.1%	60.2%	12.2%	—	42.3%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	33.1%	66.9%	10.1%	16.5%	39.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	32.5%	52.8%	13.9%	—	47.2%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	44.2%	52.9%	19.1%	20.2%	54.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	35.2%	56.0%	13.6%	—	38.1%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	33.1%	48.4%	8.3%	14.2%	20.3%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	21.6%	50.0%	9.9%	—	40.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	86%	88.3°F	2.6°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	87.5°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	86.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-28 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	86.1°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	85.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
ICON	26%	83.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	80.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260929-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 26 · 02:26 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 86°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗