KBNA / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Sep 28 · 14:01 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

70%

56%

26%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.3¢Risks 46.30u

WN2NO 53.7¢Risks 53.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.70u · WN2 −53.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T14:01:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-26T02:26:22+00:00	51.7%	59.9%	3.6%	39.8%	21.8%
2026-09-26T03:11:44+00:00	51.7%	59.9%	3.6%	39.8%	21.8%
2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00	51.7%	59.9%	3.6%	39.8%	21.8%
2026-09-26T04:42:05+00:00	51.7%	59.9%	3.6%	39.8%	20.0%
2026-09-26T05:27:18+00:00	51.7%	59.9%	7.0%	39.8%	20.0%
2026-09-26T06:12:25+00:00	51.7%	59.9%	7.0%	39.8%	20.0%
2026-09-26T06:57:30+00:00	51.7%	59.9%	7.0%	39.8%	20.0%
2026-09-26T07:42:58+00:00	59.1%	59.9%	7.0%	54.4%	20.0%
2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00	59.1%	59.9%	7.0%	54.4%	20.0%
2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00	59.1%	59.9%	7.0%	54.4%	20.0%
2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00	59.1%	59.9%	7.0%	54.4%	20.0%
2026-09-26T10:44:04+00:00	59.1%	59.9%	7.0%	54.4%	20.0%
2026-09-26T11:29:16+00:00	59.1%	74.2%	6.1%	54.4%	20.0%
2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00	59.1%	74.2%	6.1%	54.4%	20.0%
2026-09-26T12:59:35+00:00	59.1%	74.2%	6.1%	54.4%	20.0%
2026-09-26T13:44:43+00:00	59.1%	74.2%	6.1%	54.4%	20.0%
2026-09-26T14:32:08+00:00	59.1%	74.1%	6.1%	54.4%	19.9%
2026-09-26T15:17:30+00:00	59.1%	73.1%	6.1%	54.4%	19.9%
2026-09-26T16:02:36+00:00	59.1%	73.1%	6.1%	54.4%	19.9%
2026-09-26T16:47:42+00:00	59.1%	73.1%	6.1%	54.4%	18.5%
2026-09-26T17:32:51+00:00	59.1%	73.1%	6.1%	54.4%	18.5%
2026-09-26T18:17:59+00:00	59.1%	73.1%	6.1%	54.4%	18.5%
2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00	59.1%	73.1%	6.1%	54.4%	18.5%
2026-09-26T19:48:18+00:00	52.7%	73.1%	6.1%	45.6%	18.5%
2026-09-26T20:33:26+00:00	52.7%	73.1%	6.1%	45.6%	18.5%
2026-09-26T21:18:32+00:00	52.7%	73.1%	6.1%	45.6%	18.5%
2026-09-26T22:03:38+00:00	52.7%	73.1%	6.1%	45.6%	18.5%
2026-09-26T22:48:45+00:00	52.7%	73.1%	6.1%	45.6%	18.5%
2026-09-26T23:33:55+00:00	52.7%	74.2%	2.9%	45.6%	18.5%
2026-09-27T00:19:03+00:00	52.7%	74.2%	2.9%	45.6%	18.5%
2026-09-27T01:04:12+00:00	52.7%	74.2%	2.9%	45.6%	18.5%
2026-09-27T01:49:25+00:00	59.1%	74.2%	2.9%	45.6%	18.5%
2026-09-27T02:34:31+00:00	59.1%	74.2%	2.9%	45.6%	18.5%
2026-09-28T03:27:34+00:00	62.2%	82.8%	4.0%	59.6%	32.5%
2026-09-28T04:13:29+00:00	62.2%	82.8%	4.0%	59.6%	32.5%
2026-09-28T04:58:35+00:00	62.2%	82.8%	10.2%	59.6%	25.7%
2026-09-28T05:43:44+00:00	62.2%	82.8%	10.2%	59.6%	25.7%
2026-09-28T06:28:55+00:00	62.2%	82.8%	10.2%	59.6%	25.7%
2026-09-28T07:14:00+00:00	62.2%	82.8%	10.2%	59.6%	25.7%
2026-09-28T07:59:29+00:00	61.6%	82.8%	10.2%	70.4%	25.7%
2026-09-28T08:45:28+00:00	61.6%	82.8%	10.2%	70.4%	25.7%
2026-09-28T09:30:33+00:00	61.6%	82.8%	10.2%	70.4%	25.7%
2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00	61.6%	82.8%	10.2%	70.4%	25.7%
2026-09-28T11:00:49+00:00	61.6%	85.8%	6.7%	70.4%	25.7%
2026-09-28T11:46:05+00:00	61.6%	85.8%	6.7%	70.4%	25.7%
2026-09-28T12:31:12+00:00	61.6%	85.8%	6.7%	70.4%	25.7%
2026-09-28T13:16:21+00:00	61.6%	85.8%	6.7%	70.4%	25.7%
2026-09-28T14:01:27+00:00	55.9%	85.8%	6.8%	70.4%	25.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	86%	88.3°F	2.6°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	87.5°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	86.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-28 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	86.1°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	85.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
ICON	26%	83.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	80.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260929-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 26 · 02:26 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 86°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗