KBNA / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Sep 28 · 14:01 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

50%

36%

11%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 31.9¢Risks 31.95u

WN2NO 68.0¢Risks 68.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +68.05u · WN2 −68.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	29.3%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	40.4%	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	24.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	2.0%	—	—	34.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	55.8%	—	—	39.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	27.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	1.9%	51.3%	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	19.9%	47.9%	4.4%	—	50.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	55.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	6.4%	44.9%	12.8%	—	37.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	28.9%	61.3%	5.2%	—	46.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	21.8%	1.4%	1.0%	—	38.2%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	0.0%	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	8.3%	55.0%	12.9%	—	41.7%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	3.4%	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	6.5%	34.6%	3.8%	—	23.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	7.5%	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	5.3%	51.8%	4.6%	—	15.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	7.7%	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	7.9%	48.0%	3.5%	—	31.3%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	8.4%	47.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	6.1%	50.0%	1.7%	—	19.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	12.7%	31.6%	—	—	26.2%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	21.3%	38.2%	2.0%	—	34.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	18.3%	36.7%	0.0%	—	31.5%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	17.5%	37.4%	1.1%	—	27.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	17.5%	35.9%	1.1%	—	30.4%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	17.4%	47.5%	2.5%	5.5%	36.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	15.8%	34.9%	3.5%	—	20.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	13.4%	40.7%	2.6%	5.0%	17.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	12.4%	26.5%	3.7%	—	22.1%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	19.1%	25.6%	5.5%	5.9%	26.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	12.8%	27.2%	3.2%	—	14.4%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	11.0%	20.3%	1.5%	3.1%	5.2%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.3%	20.3%	1.7%	—	14.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	62%	88.3°F	2.6°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	87.5°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	86.1°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	31%	86.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-28 02:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	85.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
ICON	11%	83.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	80.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260929-TMAX-GE88
Opened Sep 22 · 07:59 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗